Newsom’s win in California bodes well for Biden
Californian Democrats brazenly stole another election overnight, as they unfairly turned their huge numerical advantage in the state into votes at the ballot box. Such trickery ensured a comfortable victory for Governor Gavin Newsom in his recall election and left Republicans ruing that wrinkle in the electoral system that allows candidates with the most votes to win elections.
To say the result was never in doubt would overlook how worried Democrats had been in recent weeks, perhaps largely down to the bullish nature of the Republican challenge. Recall elections are relatively common in the 18 states where the rules of direct democracy allow voters to challenge incumbent politicians. In the case of California, only 12 per cent of voters were needed to force Governor Gavin Newsom into a special election at a time when he looked vulnerable after his response to Covid.
Before the pandemic, Newsom had been a popular governor (approval ratings consistently north of 50 per cent) and was precisely the kind of young thruster (he’s just 53) that gets progressive tongues wagging about presidential runs. He’s handsome, tall (6’ 3”), with the kind of charisma that would see him play The President in every Independence Day movie going forward. Yet he had also made some notable mistakes in recent months. Despite having some of the toughest measures during the early pandemic, California had not fared well. Newsom appeared maskless at a birthday party last November and then oversaw the slow rollout of vaccines. It left him with a political vulnerability that Republicans sought to exploit, compounded when the governor’s attorney forgot to designate his party affiliation on the ballot. The omens weren’t good for Newsom even if political logic suggested he had nothing to fear.
Republican confidence, on the other hand, looked misplaced. The fight has been a microcosm for the next year, leading into the midterms, when Republicans similarly feel bullish about flipping the House of Representatives. They have some reason to be optimistic. History is on their side. Presidents usually see their parties perform poorly in midterms. Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan contributed to a dip in his popularity but the underlying cause for dissatisfaction remains Covid, which had been a big factor in driving people to the polls last November. Biden had run on competence, but the emergence of the Delta variant has nullified much of the progress the administration had achieved in getting Americans vaccinated, with their drive running into the obstacle of the cultural war narrative being pushed by the Right.
Newsom’s victory shows why that thinking might not be so straightforward. Standing in the way of Republicans is their continued embrace of Trumpism. Their pick for governor had been Larry Elder, a conservative radio shock jock, who, like so many Republicans, embraces the “Big Lie”. The conspiracy theory spread by the former president now extends to the result of this recall election. Before voters had even cast as a single vote, the Elder camp was levelling accusations of fraud at their opponents. To say it’s risible is to understate how toxic it is to American democracy. Republicans never challenge results that go their way, proving that this isn’t about systemic failure in an electoral process as much as it’s simply about overturning results they do not like.
Although it was always a long shot that a Senate seat in California would become vacant in the next three years, this was still a missed opportunity. A Republican governor could have flipped the Senate given that governors get to choose a replacement to sit for the remainder of the term. Yet, more significantly, this was a chance to prove that Republicans had a winning strategy rather than their continued cultish devotion to Trump’s divisive rhetoric. The last time there was a recalled election they prevailed when Republicans installed the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger, who replaced the moderate Gray Davis, in 2003. This time, they brazenly ignored the shrewd move and attempted to install a man who has made repeated provocative statements on race and women’s rights. Matters were certainly not helped by the Supreme Court’s recent decision not to intervene in Texas’s fight over abortion rights. Then there’s the still looming presence of the former president, whose recent weight loss suggests he’s seriously considering running in 2024.
The problem for Republicans is that approval ratings rarely map clearly onto election results. Even if voters are dissatisfied with the progress Biden has made, the President continues to speak for most Americans on Covid, abortion, as well as Afghanistan, voting rights, and welfare. It also does not translate into the belief that the Republicans under Trump would do any better.
The most illuminating moment of this special election came on Monday night when Biden addressed crowds in California. “You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you’ll get Donald Trump,” he warned bluntly. That’s a powerful message and it remains difficult to see how Republicans nullify it within 14 months. Newsom’s victory showed no significant decrease in support. Rather, the more stridently Trumpian the Republicans remain, the greater chance that Democrats have of motivating their voters and retaining power.