Need to know: why is Russia massing troops on the Ukrainian border?

Tensions are escalating once again between Ukraine and its neighbour, Russia. The Kremlin is believed to have assembled up to 80,000 troops near Ukraine’s eastern border and a ceasefire is breaking down along the front line. Here’s what you need to know.

What is happening? 

Armed clashes have intensified in recent weeks in the Donbas region – the war-torn east of Ukraine – between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists. 

Twenty-six Ukrainian troops have already been killed in the escalating violence since the start of this year, compared with 50 in the whole of 2020.

Last week, Kyiv accused Moscow of massing tens of thousands of military troops on its northern and eastern borders as well as on the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, also says that Moscow is blocking his attempts to begin talks aimed at easing the military tensions. 

The number of Russian troops situated at the border with Ukraine is believed to be greater than at any time since 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine. 

Open source investigations have shed new light on the scale of the military buildup, revealing that at least 14 ground troop units have been moved into the region bordering Ukraine since late March. Video and pictures, some uploaded to TikTok, show train carriages transporting tanks, rocket artillery and short-range ballistic missiles across Russia to the border region. 

There is growing concern internationally that an escalation in military deployments could result in a full-blown conflict. 

What is the background to the escalation? 

Ukraine gained independence in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia came to consider its increasingly western outlook to be a threat to Moscow’s interests. 

Violence between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country dates back to 2014, when Russia seized Crimea. Moscow fomented an uprising in the Russian-speaking enclaves of the Donbas region, resulting in Kyiv losing control of 7 per cent of its territory.

More than 14,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since 2014 in the fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine’s army for control of Donbas. 

Fighting has subsided in the past few years, and a new ceasefire agreement took hold last July, but a diplomatic solution to settle the eastern regions’ status has remained out of reach. Crimea is still recognised as part of Ukraine by the United Nations, and Kyiv has vowed to one day win it back.

Clashes, mainly involving artillery and mortar fire, have picked up again since the start of the year, with both sides blaming each other. 

Moscow has come under repeated fire from Ukraine and the West for arming Ukrainian separatists, despite Russia denying these accusations. 

Moscow is not, however, denying that it has recently moved troops into the region. 

Why is Russia doing this now? 

Analysts have been split over Russia’s true intentions amid the latest escalation in tensions with Kyiv. It remains unclear whether Russia’s troop movements are just an intimidation tactic or a prelude to a major invasion. 

Moscow’s maneuvers, as some have argued, are intended to be seen. The Russian military could be doing far more to conceal preparations or troop movements which don’t appear indicative of preparation for a covert attack. In other words, it may just be a case of military posturing. 

One logical explanation for Russia’s actions is that it is a way to pressure Ukraine, and Western counterparts, over the lack of progress in implementing the Minsk II agreement: a 2015 roadmap out of the conflict with Ukraine, that many in Kyiv believe is disadvantageous. 

Others argue that Moscow may be testing the Biden Administration’s commitment to defending Ukraine, and sending a signal to the US that Russia retains strong coercive power. Tensions have increased between Moscow and Washington lately, after President Biden told reporters that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, was a “killer.”

Many believe that a full-blown war is unlikely. However, Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior analyst from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has cautioned: “We are seeing more and more commentators and analysts saying this is more serious than just a show of strength. I don’t think we can rule out anything at this point.”

On Friday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin press secretary, defended the Russian military buildup and warned that, if Kyiv launches an assault on Russian-backed separatists to take back its territory, Moscow could “come to (their) defence.” Russia “will not stand aside,” Peskov added, if it believes hostilities could lead to “mass civilian casualties.”

How has the world responded? 

The US, UK and EU have all pledged “unwavering” support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But some believe that NATO member countries could be doing more to help the Ukrainian government. 

Zelenksy has urged NATO to speed up his country’s request for membership to the alliance, describing it as the “only way to end the war in Donbas.” Ukrainian membership, the President argues, would be “a real sign for Russia.”

Yet NATO officials have said that Ukraine has to “focus on domestic reforms” and “develop its defence capabilities in accordance with NATO standards” in order to be considered for membership.