Need to know: should we be worried about the Indian variant?

As coronavirus infections soar across India, Boris Johnson has been forced, for the second time, to cancel his trip to Delhi. It was hoped that the PM’s first major overseas visit – set to take place next week – would boost trade and investment ties. 

But the postponement is “only sensible”, Johnson insisted, at a time when rapid spread of the so-called Indian variant is alarming scientists and governments across the globe. India has now been added to England’s travel “red list”.

Just how dire is India’s current Covid situation? And how worried should we be about the Indian variant, and its detection on British soil? Here’s what you need to know.

What is the situation with coronavirus in India? 

India reported over 273,000 new infections on Monday, its highest daily rise since the start of the pandemic. The country has now reported more than 15 million infections – the second highest number of cases globally after the US.

India’s current daily case numbers are higher than anywhere throughout the pandemic, and the true scale of infection could be much higher still since India’s testing figures are woefully low. 

On Sunday, India confirmed 1,620 deaths from the virus. It now has the fourth highest number of Covid deaths in the world after the US, Brazil and Mexico. 

Delhi is set to impose a week-long lockdown from Monday evening, with the city struggling to contain the huge surge in cases and hospitals at breaking point. 

According to Arvind Kejriwal, the city’s chief minister, the capital is facing acute shortages of hospital beds, medical oxygen supplies and key medicines such as the anti-viral Remdesivir. 

Is India’s new variant responsible for the spike? 

On 5 October, a Covid strain labelled B.1.617 was first detected in the Indian state of Maharashtra. It began being detected in an increasing number of samples from January onwards.

Dr Saumitra Das, director of Bengal’s National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, is clear that scientists “have not been able to establish that the new variant is the reason behind the faster spread of the infection during the second wave.”

However, many believe it is highly likely that it has played an important role in the surging cases. Genomic sequencing data – uploaded by Indian scientists to a global database – indicates that the Maharashtra strain is becoming the most prevalent among all variants in India. It was the most common in the analysed genome sequences of mutant variants in the 60 days prior to 2 April. On 1 April, the strain accounted for 80 per cent of all samples sequenced.

Why is this variant causing concern?

The Indian variant contains a double mutation prompting fears that it will spread more easily and make the vaccine less effective. 

There have been 103 cases of the Indian variant detected in the UK.

The exact level of threat the Indian variant poses is still unclear.   

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, warns “there is laboratory evidence” that two of the mutations it contains – E484Q and L452R – “are both escape mutations.” An escape mutation helps the virus dodge the body’s immune defences, meaning those with immunity from prior infection are still at risk.

But Dr Mike Tildesley, an epidemiologist at the University of Warwick, believes it’s too early to assess the risk: “The two mutations may make the vaccines less effective, and may make the virus more transmissible. But the key thing here is ‘may’. We are still trying to gather evidence.”According to Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical advisor for NHS Test and Trace, there is not enough data yet to classify the Indian variant as a “variant of concern”, alongside the Brazilian, Kent and South African strains. It is still being labelled by officials as a “variant under investigation”.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, says the Indian variant may well pose less risk than many are suggesting. It should be “watched carefully”, he told the BBC, but it is probably not in the “top tier” of concern for the UK, compared to the Kent and South African strains. 

As for the spread of this variant in India, Dr Barrett says, “Clearly this variant has increased in frequency in India around the same time as their very large and tragic recent wave. But I just don’t think we know yet whether there’s a cause and effect relationship.”

What is the UK doing to curb the spread?

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, told MPs this afternoon that India will be added to the UK’s travel “red list”, meaning all arrivals from India will be subject to hotel quarantine. Anyone who is not a UK or Irish resident or a British citizen will not be banned from entering the UK if they’ve been in India in the previous 10 days.

These rules will come into force at 4am on Friday.

“India is a country I know well and love,” said Hancock. “Between our two countries we have ties of friendship and family. I understand the impact of this decision but I hope the House will concur that we must act.”