Need to know: how worried should we be about the Indian variant?

Rising cases of the B.1.617.2 (or Indian) variant have raised doubts over whether the government will stick to its timetable for ending lockdown.

There are now more than 2,300 confirmed cases of this variant in the UK – a 77 per cent increase over five days. Around a fifth have been identified in Bolton and Blackburn, where the variant is now the dominant strain. 

While parts of London and the North West are currently the hotspots, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has warned that this more transmissible variant has spread across the country. 

Just how worried should we be about the Indian variant? Here’s what you need to know.

How does the Indian variant compare with the Kent strain? 

The B.1.617.2 variant is more prevalent than Kent strain in several parts of the country and the government’s Sage advisory group has “confidence” that it is more transmissible than the Kent strain. 

According to Sage: “It is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50 per cent more transmissible”.

Given this significant growth advantage, it is increasingly plausible that it will go on to replace the Kent strain in England over time, in the same way that the Kent strain replaced other variants at the end of last year.

There is, however, no evidence so far that B.1.617.2 strain is causing more severe disease.

Could the Indian variant impact vaccine efficacy? 

Matt Hancock has said that while this new variant of concern could “spread like wildfire” among the unvaccinated, the UK has “increasing confidence” that Covid-19 vaccines work against it.

The Indian variant contains the L452R mutation which is also found in the so-called Californian variant and does seem to confer some level of vaccine resistance. 

However, early trials conducted at Oxford University suggest that this new strain slightly reduces the vaccine’s ability to neutralise the virus but the effect is “not very great”. 

The Health Secretary told MPs that there were 19 people in hospital with coronavirus in Bolton and eight in Blackburn. The vast majority of the patients had not taken the jab despite being eligible for it, showing that the Indian variant is “not penetrating older, vaccinated groups”. 

In India, most health workers were vaccinated early and there have been very few hospitalisations and deaths among this cohort. In a study of nearly 3,300 Indian healthcare workers given the AstraZeneca vaccine, only 85 reported Covid symptoms and just 2 required hospitalisation.

According to an observational Mumbai-based study, a small number of vaccinated people have still been infected with the Indian variant but, crucially, they are getting a much milder infection. Or, as its study authors put it: “The vaccine blunts the sting.”

What is the UK doing to curb the spread of the Indian variant? 

Surge testing is taking place in targeted areas across England where the Indian variant is most prevalent.

In Bolton, the government has launched vaccination buses and a big push to get more people vaccinated is bearing fruit. Over the weekend, more than 6,200 people received a jab for the first time. Prior to the push, about 10,000 people in the highest priority groups were yet to be vaccinated. 

Dominic Harrison, Director of Public Health at Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council has said that an additional supply of more than 1,000 Pfizer doses per day would be available for all residents over 18 in high variant spread areas for the next two weeks.

Ministers have also told MPs that they expect to increase daily vaccine doses from 500,000 to 800,000 within a fortnight by drawing on a stockpile of 3.2 million doses.

Will we be able to stop the spread of the Indian variant? 

When it comes to public health control measures such as testing, contact tracing and isolation, Professor Sharon Peacock, Director of COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK), has said: “Everything we have learnt to date about the Kent strain indicates that these (measures) will not prevent a transmissible variant from national spread, and highly transmissible variants have a biological passport for international travel and global spread.”

But, as Prof Peacock – nicknamed “the coronavirus variant hunter” – says, “These control measures are very important since they slow the spread of even highly transmissible variants and buy us time.”