Need to know: Sweden’s Prime Minister ousted
If you enjoyed the Danish television series, Borgen, you will find today’s developments in Sweden fairly unsurprising. Scando politics seems to proceed with an endless sequence of fudges, long periods of genuine inactivity and the very occasional, momentous set-to. But the latest development in Sweden demonstrates that the fall out from the recent elections is serious.
How was the PM ousted?
The Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, leader of Sweden’s centre-left bloc, and in power since 2014, has been forced out after a mandatory no-confidence vote in parliament. Of the 349 seats in parliament, 204 MPs voted against Mr Lofven while 142 voted in favour, passing by 59 votes. The centre-right bloc joined forces with the far-right Sweden Democrats to oust Lofven.
Is Swedish politics gridlocked?
Yes. Sweden’s parliamentary elections on the 9th September left the country’s political system in stasis. Neither the PM Stefan Löfven’s red-green coalition or the four-party centre-right coalition gained enough seats to form a majority, with the PM on 144 seats and the right on 143. The populist right-wing Sweden Democrats made significant gains and finished the third-largest party with 62 seats, winning 18% of the vote up from 13% four years ago. And the far-left did well too winning 28 seats.
What happens next?
Parliament’s speaker, Andreas Norlen, will now ask a new leader to come forward, with Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderate Party, the largest in the centre-right bloc most likely to be chosen. The bloc, called “Alliance”, with its three other parties, Centre, Liberal and Christian, still only have a minority between them. The equation is a tricky one – either he could form a Große Koalition-style deal with the Social Democrats or team up with the Sweden Democrats.
Will the Sweden Democrats be in government?
Since the Sweden Democrats entered parliament for the first time in 2010, they have been shunned by all mainstream parties. Significantly, Kristersson has reaffirmed that he is committed to that protocol. But the Social Democrats have ruled out supporting Kristersson too, leaving the Moderates with very few options. Jimmie Akesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, has also made clear that he will not go into coalition with another party unless there is a clear commitment to accepting key elements of his policy programme on immigration, healthcare, pensions and crime.
Although the Sweden Democrats make their appeal to traditionalist working-class voters with concerns on immigration and the refugee crisis at the forefront, it has embarked on limited modernisation, expelling members for racist behaviour and cutting links with more explicitly far-right groups.
If the stasis continues, new general elections will be held in three months’ time, but there is little polling evidence to suggest that the vote shares would be any different.