Need to know – Sri Lanka’s constitutional crisis

So what’s happening?

Ongoing protests in Sri Lanka throughout the week have resulted in two deaths as the country’s constitutional fabric continues to unravel. Thousands have gathered outside Temple Trees, the official residence of the ousted former prime minister, in support of the former premier.

On Monday, police arrested the sacked oil minister Arjuna Ranatunga and his bodyguard after the latter fired on protesters outside his house.

What caused this recent upheaval?

The crisis has been caused by the shock sacking of the Sri Lankan prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26th by President Maithripala Sirisena in a move that critics have declared unconstitutional. Mr Wickremesinghe has not recognised the legality of the move and is still refusing to leave his official residence, insisting that he retains the support of the majority of the Sri Lankan parliament. President Sirisena has performed a U-turn since he appointed Mr Wickremesinghe the head of government in 2015 after the results of the elections held that year.

Has Sirisena acted unlawfully?

Under Sri Lanka’s unique constitution the president wields significant executive power – more power than the prime minister – and has historically enjoyed the right to hire and fire premiers.

The president insists that “the appointments were made totally in accordance with the constitution and on the advice of legal experts”, but Nihal Jayawickrama (one such expert) has declared that this power was stripped from the presidency after sweeping constitutional reforms three years ago, making this potentially the first illegal transfer of power since Sri Lanka became a democracy in 1931. Legality aside, the move by Sirisena is politically surprising as Mahinda Rajapaksa, the strongman he has chosen as the new prime minister, served as president himself from 2005-2015, before being defeated by Sirisena (his rival); the two are from opposing Sri Lankan political factions.

How expected was this?

It is widely known that Sirisena has been looking for a reason to remove Wickremesinghe given various allegations of corruption, public disaffection with Sri Lanka’s economic conditions, and even a claim by the president of a plot to assassinate him.

Is there resolution on the horizon?

Wickremesinghe and those protesting in support of him have been pressurising the president to summon parliament so that the dispute between the rival prime ministerial claimaints can be settled by MPs democratically. However, parliament has been in a state of suspension and will remain so (according to a declaration today) until 16th November in order to allow Rajapaksa to build support. The president has equivocated on recalling parliament earlier than this date in response to mounting public outcry.

What’s the broader context behind the crisis? 

Rajapaksa is an inherently controversial appointment; not only has he served in the highest political office already for ten years; he was a powerful military leader in Sri Lanka’s agonising 26-year civil war, and he still faces unresolved accusations of widespread human rights abuses for actions taken against Sri Lanka’s ethnic minority during the conflict, which ended in 2009.

The broader context is one of competing Chinese and Indian interests in the wider Indian ocean; the current president has brought Sri Lanka significantly closer to China, overseeing significant Chinese investment in the country as well as the transfer of ownership of a port constructed in the south to direct Chinese ownership after Sri Lanka defaulted on accrued debts. It is clear that the country is embroiled in a deep factional dispute that has its roots in Sri Lanka’s historical conflicts and precarious regional situation, but it is also witnessing the kinds of disputes and allegations of corruption and insider dealing that heralds the faltering of a constitutional order.

It is too early to declare a descent into dictatorship, but it seems that the constitutional order is in peril.