Need to know: Cohen, Manafort and how stuffed Trump is

This has been perhaps the most turbulent 24 hours of Donald Trump’s presidency, and that’s saying something. Not least because one of his closest aides from the election either pleaded guilty and another was found guilty of multiple federal crimes, but also because these convictions look set to embolden former FBI director’s, Rober Mueller, Russia probe. It’s not looking great for Mr Trump, and his frenetic response suggest he’s worried. Here’s what you need to know.

Who are Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort?

Michael Cohen was Donald Trump’s personal lawyer from 2006 until May 2018. He stopped working for Trump a month after the federal investigation began. Paul Manafort was the campaign chairman for Trump’s 2016 election. He was an adviser to the presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and Gerald Ford. He was in significant financial distress when he began working for Trump.

First things first: what happened to Paul Manafort?

The Paul Manafort situation obviously isn’t ideal for Camp Trump, but it has fewer serious implications than the Cohen case. Manafort faced 18 allegations of falsifying tax returns, committing bank fraud and failing to file reports of foreign bank accounts. After four days of jury deliberations, he was found guilty of eight of those charges. The judge declared a mistrial on the other ten, meaning they can be tried again. The prosecution essentially accused Manafort of not declaring all of his income. He could face up to 80 years in prison.

Trump’s response?

Yesterday afternoon Trump spoke to journalists after he touched down in Virginia. He told them that “Paul Manafort is a good man” and added: “It doesn’t involve me. Very sad thing that happened, nothing to do with Russian collusion, absolutely nothing to do with – it’s a witch hunt and a disgrace.” Today Trump said on Twitter: “I feel very badly for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family. “Justice” took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to “break” – make up stories in order to get a “deal.” Such respect for a brave man!”

What are the implications for Trump and the Mueller-Russia probe?

So Trump is, technically speaking, correct: the Manafort trial has nothing to do with Russia or the outcome of the 2016 US election; but it does carry major political implications for the president. Judge T.S Ellis described the trial as a pressure tactic aimed at getting Manafort to cooperate with Mueller’s Russia investigation. While Manafort didn’t go for a guilty plea, he could still make a deal with Mueller, promising him insider information on Trump in exchange for leniency. Manafort was already a central figure in the Mueller investigation, so this should be concerning for the president. Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence said the decision would give the Mueller-Russia probe more credibility. He said: “This verdict makes it absolutely clear that the Mueller probe is not a ‘witch hunt’ — it is a serious investigation that is routing out corruption and Russian influence on our political system at the highest levels.”

What happened to Michael Cohen?

This is where it all gets a bit more hairy for Trump. Cohen faced charges of violating campaign finance laws – he was accused of paying off women who alleged they had affairs with Trump prior to his election. One of these women was the now seemingly ubiquitous Stormy Daniels. Stormy Daniels says she was paid $130,000 by Cohen days before the 2016 election in exchange for her silence about an affair she had with Trump. Yesterday it emerged that Cohen had reached a plea deal with Mueller. He pled guilty to eight charges, including the violation of campaign finance laws. The deal means he could face a reduced sentence of up to five years and three months.  A member of the prosecution team said: “These are very serious charges and reflect a pattern of lies and dishonesty over an extended period of time.”

What are the implications for Trump?

In a word: serious. Cohen directly implicated the president in illegality by saying that he was following the orders of a “candidate for federal office” when he made payments for the “principal purpose of influencing [the] election.” Cohen’s lawyer Lanny Davis tweeted last night: “Today he stood up and testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime by making payments to two women for the principal purpose of influencing an election.  If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?” Davis also said on MSNBC last night that Cohen would co-operate with Mueller’s Russia investigation: “Mr Cohen has knowledge on certain subjects that should be of interest in the special counsel and is more than happy to tell the special counsel all that he knows.” Davis specifically refers to Trump’s claim that he did not have advanced knowledge about a meeting between his son and Russian officials. At this meeting Donald Trump Jr and a Russian lawyer are alleged to have discussed “official documents and information that would incriminate” Hillary Clinton. Later that year, Clinton’s emails were leaked. Donald Trump Senior denied knowing about this meeting in advance, but has defended it as “totally legal and done all the time in politics.” So Trump is facing two major issues: That Cohen has directly implicated him in violations of campaign finance law, and that Cohen may reveal highly incriminating evidence to Mueller to aid the Russia probe. However, according to legal experts, he is unlikely to face criminal charges while president. Lanny Davis has more recently added: “From this point on, you are going to see a liberated Michael Cohen speaking truth to power.”

How do the midterm elections come into this?

While Trump is unlikely to face criminal charges while president, he could be impeached by Congress. For that to happen, the Democrats would have to win control over both houses in the midterm elections this November. Things are looking precarious for the Republicans as of now. The president’s party loses on average 32 seats in the House and two in the Senate in the midterms. For Democrats to regain control of the House they need only 24 seats, and for the Senate, they need just two. A Democrat-controlled House and Senate could certainly hasten the process of trying to impeach Trump, although to kick him out the Senate needs to vote two to one for it.

Trump’s response?

Pretty funny actually. The president tweeted just after lunch today: “If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!”