Morning World: What is India playing at on Ukraine?
The world’s largest democracy won’t play ball.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, an alliance of nations stretching from Colombia to Cambodia has condemned the war, slapped unprecedented sanctions on Moscow and sent billions of dollars of aid and weapons to Kyiv.
Not India. As G20 foreign ministers meet in Delhi today, the hosts remain firmly on the fence, despite 12 months of diplomatic cajoling by the West.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called for a ceasefire but still refuses to assign blame for the bloodshed. In a meeting with Vladimir Putin in September, Modi called their countries’ friendship “unbreakable.” And while Modi has spoken of his belief in territorial integrity and said “it is not a time for war”, his concerns about the conflict have tended to focus on global food and energy prices.
On the anniversary of the invasion last week, India again abstained in a UN General Assembly vote condemning Russian aggression. Delhi’s ambivalence points to a unique relationship with Moscow. It also shows what a powerful player India has become on the global stage.
Old friends
India has a deep affinity with Russia, rooted in decades of friendly relations with the Soviet Union. Despite India being officially non-aligned since its independence in 1947, shared anti-imperialist sentiment strengthened ties during the Cold War when Moscow repeatedly sided with Delhi by vetoing Security Council resolutions over the disputed region of Kashmir. The two nations’ diplomatic cooperation survives to this day.
Then there’s oil. India has one of the fastest growing economies in the world (the IMF predicts 6.8% growth in 2023) and is the world’s third largest oil importer. The country needs cheap oil to keep its economy humming but produces little of its own.
The war in Ukraine presented a big opportunity. The West’s pivot away from Russian oil allowed India to swoop in and hoover up supplies at a steep discount. India’s imports of Russian crude are now 33 times higher than before the war.
Moscow is also Delhi’s biggest arms dealer, supplying nearly 50% of its military kit – an estimated $13bn worth over the last five years.
India counts on Russia for S-400 air defences, stealth frigates, and nuclear submarines, weaponry which gives Delhi formidable strategic deterrence against its biggest rival, China.
Diplomatic cake-ism
India’s neutrality on Ukraine fits with its foreign policy strategy of “multi-alignment”. Instead of forging exclusive alliances with powerful nations, India plays the field, hoping to strike up productive strategic partnerships with a wide array of allies.
Delhi being a friend to all and an enemy to none allows for nifty diplomatic positioning to advance its priorities.
Top of the agenda is China. The two countries share a disputed border 2,000 miles long and Beijing’s increasing assertiveness at sea is seen as a major threat.
Close ties with the US – a fellow member of the Quad naval alliance along with Australia and Japan – helps counter China’s naval prowess. And by maintaining a close relationship with Moscow, Delhi hopes to temper Putin’s cosying up to Beijing and keep oil and weapons flowing.
The Ukraine war, by contrast, is a long way down Delhi’s list of priorities, and it knows it doesn’t have to pick a side. Washington has so far held back from strong criticism of India’s refusal to condemn the war. The Biden administration is aware that in the long run the two countries’ mutual desire to contain Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific will require a close relationship.
For the time being at least, India’s fence-sitting is paying off.
Mattie Brignal,
Defence Editor