British-US relations won’t be easy after Brexit

After Huawei was given the green light to have limited involvement in the development of the UK’s 5G network, there was a degree of nervousness about the visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to London this week. There was a quite a bit of sneering from remainers about the big post-Brexit decisions not being so easy and the UK being pushed around by the US. In the event, Pompeo was enormously helpful to the government. His appearance at the Policy Exchange alongside Dominic Raab was very positive.

Given the failure in US diplomacy that the Huawei decision represents and the evident frustration this has caused, it was interesting that Pompeo pulled his punches on the issue. Perhaps he has been satisfied by the explanations and reassurances given behind closed doors. Pompeo declared that the UK/US relationship was in a “fantastic place” and made positive noises about the future of the “special relationship”.

In a good PR move for the government, he talked up the enormous benefits that Brexit would bring to both the UK and the US. He repeated that the UK was at the front of the line for a trade deal and even said it could be done before the presidential election this November, rather a rapid and unprecedented timetable. He also made the point that he didn’t believe a UK deal with the EU would preclude one with the US.

I’ve written for Reaction before about the severe difficulties of negotiating a comprehensive trade agreement with the US, especially in the era of Trump’s “America first” policy. Considering the breakneck timetable proposed by Pompeo, it looks likely that both sides are eyeing an easy diplomatic win by dressing up some minor agreements on trade as a bigger deal than it is in reality.

This could be an agreement on tariffs that benefit the UK that results in Trump’s trade war tariffs not applying to the UK. This with various other minor agreements could be packaged up for the press and the public as a trade deal. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; it would be an easy diplomatic win and could be the first step in a longer process of enhancing US-UK trade via a broader agreement which can be negotiated after the UK has settled its arrangements with the EU.

There should be no rushing into a major agreement with the US as the only way of getting it done quickly is giving into all their demands while asking for little in return. A bad trade agreement could actually have a net negative effect on GDP and shouldn’t be rushed or done for the sake of it.

On other foreign policy matters Raab and Pompeo stressed that the UK and the US shared the same overall aims, even if they disagreed sometimes on tactics over issues such as Iran. What will be interesting to observe over the coming years, and challenging for the government, is how the UK approaches the alliance now that the US perceives China as their number one strategic threat. It will increasingly expect its allies to fall in line, and an independent UK is going to have to balance its own self-interest along with its alliances with the US and the EU. This is the path we have chosen and it won’t always be easy.