EU needs nothing from UK, apart from £40bn, tariff-free trade, and security

Having been occupied writing about something else (the Marxist Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, for The Times tomorrow) I only picked up in passing the debate about the EU laying out its guidelines for the next phase of the Brexit talks.

On social media there was the usual round of ultra-Remain wincing when the mighty, beloved EU does anything. Ooh, these guidelines from the EU are tough, tough, tough, so tough. The Brits are really going to get it now, and so on. There was presumably a little bit of complementary hard Brexiteer shouting about fish – which the EU wants a slice of after we leave – but I missed it if so.

Returning to the subject, at the end of the day, reading the assorted reports and watching Donald Tusk, several things strike me.

In Britain we are forever hearing how hopeless Brexit Britain is. It has no cards to play, apparently. There is nothing that the UK has that the EU wants. We are doomed supplicants. Just wait until they administer the punishment beating. It’s going to be pay back time for all those pesky Leave voters and their naughtiness on referendum day.

Actually, listening to the polite Mr Tusk it turns out that there is quite a bit that the EU would like from the UK after Brexit.

1) It wants £40bn of Britain’s money. Britain can live with that, if all else proceeds sensibly. Still, it is quite a lot of cash.

2) The EU seeks tariff-free trade. The UK has a large trade deficit with the EU – in the region of £60bn. They sell us more than we buy from them, in other words. They want and need this to continue. Good.

3) They want to carry on fishing in British waters.

4) They want the UK to continue to play a leading role in European security. Again, good. The UK is Europe’s leading security, intelligence and listening power, so of course we should be closely involved as partners, neighbours and friends. There should be no doubt about it.

These are perfectly fair claims – apart from the bit about the fish in British waters, who it is well-known all wear little bowler hats and Union Flag waistcoats.

Apart from the patriotic British fish, the EU’s requests are in line, as far as they go, with what the UK is seeking. The EU cites introducing complex Rules of Origin, which the British claim their proposals will make unnecessary. That could yet be the issue that scuppers the whole thing, but this is the latest stage of an ongoing negotiation.

Beyond that, as John Rentoul spotted having watched Tusk, it looks as though Tusk and the EU want a deal. Perhaps when it comes to it they will not have the will or the imagination to find a way round the obstacles, but most negotiations would get nowhere if they were governed according to the shrieking of catastrophe-obsessed doom-mongers who begin wanting it to fail. Indeed, war apart, most of history involves finding a “work around” and adapting to changing circumstances. It’s a trade. Life goes on. Although the UK is leaving the EU, a strict legal construct that guards its rules jealously as though they were written on tablets of stone, it turns out that EU is in the mood to negotiate and does want quite a bit from us. As they used to say: Who would have thunk it?