Michael Bloomberg leaving it late

A quick postscript to the week in American politics which you might have thought was over.

Michael Bloomberg might (although we’ll see) be getting into the Democratic race. It’s not yet confirmed and reality might not align itself to whatever preconditions the former New York mayor has set himself for his participation, but the fact that he’s not allowed the closing date for entry into the Alabama Democratic primary to pass without filing his papers suggests that he’s still out there, even if at the moment that means only keeping a watching brief.

Does it make a difference? It might. Bloomberg is one of those big beasts whose movements shift interest and could reshape the entire race for the Democratic nomination.

First of all, the news tells us what we already knew: in theory the Democrats might be nicely placed for 2020 with a wide range of candidates representing the wide base of the blue caucus. However, there are some notable problems with those candidates, which variously have to do with them being too old, too young, or too far to the left. Joe Biden might remain the best hope on the national stage but to get there he needs to win state races and there he’s looking vulnerable to the more progressive candidates, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. He’s even looking like he could be struggling with the emergence of Pete Buttigieg as a centrist force.

Bloomberg’s interest is a manifestation of a growing suspicion that there’s still room for a serious moderate candidate. Rumours of a return by Hillary Clinton weren’t just the stuff of Republican spin and they were also not entirely without merit or sense. The election in 2020 is not going to be 2016. What made her weak then, would empower her if she ran again. Again, highly unlikely but a marker of where we are. Bloomberg, on the other hand, wouldn’t offer that narrative but he would offer a similar deal to Biden – a return to grown-up politics, only with more energy, fewer stumbles, and a lot less Hunter (his scandal-prone son) and his Ukranian business deals.

If Bloomberg does run, then it could be seismic but not simply in terms of the money he can bring to his candidacy. With a reported wealth of $52 billion (itself negating Trump’s business credentials), he can self-fund a campaign at levels that even the GOP itself could not hope to match. That doesn’t, of course, guarantee victory. Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race, hasn’t polled above the low single digits but that just proves that a wealthy candidate needs something more than wealth. Money does not buy success. It can, however, be a huge boon if you have the public profile that wins supporters.

And that’s why Bloomberg’s interest is worth noting. He was a popular New York mayor (though, in truth, all former mayors of the Big Apple do have their detractors), with YouGov ranking him as the 30th most popular Democrat and the 12th most famous. He’s also a known quantity in US politics, which means he doesn’t have to spend months, like Steyer, appearing in ads whose whole purpose is to teach people how to spell his name.

Republicans will naturally claim he’s still too radical to take on Trump, especially given the strong position he’s taken on gun legislation. That might make him unpopular with more blue-leaning Republicans but, at the same time, his strong defence of NYPD’s “stop and frisk” policy underlines his law and order credentials. Too liberal or not liberal enough? Perhaps phrase it another way: he might be the balance the Democrats need in 2020. If – if – he decides to try.

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