If May doesn’t raise her game she and the country are in trouble

It is hard to remember now, but at one stage this election campaign seemed so predictable, as expressed in a Private Eye cover from the early days. The Liberals were portrayed as a toddler with a toy car. For Labour, it was an old hearse with RIP Grandad painted on the side. As for Madame May: she had a golden coach on its way to the Guildhall.

It has not quite worked out like that – and this is all Theresa May’s fault. She did indeed have a golden coach at her disposal: an electoral prospect which most of her predecessors would have envied, and she threw it away. Two great prizes were there for the taking. In advance of the Brexit negotiations, she could have rallied the nation. Yes, there will be difficulties, she should have said: there usually are in a complicated world. But there will also be immense opportunities, not least for a better long-term relationship with Europe. She could have gone on to say that the British people have never been afraid of challenges. Indeed, we are at our best when we are inspired by some great task. That has been our history: it is also our future. Today, we have nothing to fear except fear itself. This is not a people to be cowed by fear.

So: she relaunches the Brexit debate, and does the same to the Tory party over great swathes of the country. Since 1945, the Tories have had a problem which most of its leaders have addressed and none has solved. Tories know that they have the best policies on social welfare, not least because they usually have sound economic policies to ensure wealth-creation. As Mrs Thatcher enjoyed reminding us, the Good Samaritan’s good intentions would have meant nothing without the cash to implement them. But this has been a hard argument to win, because of an almost ineradicable perception that the Tories are a party by the rich, of the rich, for the rich.

Enter Mrs May, festooned with opportunity. She was not at Eton. She ought have been able to appeal to the many millions whose economic life is a dialectic, between aspirations and anxiety. They want to get on. They want their children to get on – but they are often worried about bills and about the future. They should have been her people, especially with Jeremy Corbyn’s help.

At the beginning, it seemed as if dear old Corby would wander about the country, emerging from grandad’s hearse in order to address crowds of enthusiastic socialists, just as Michael Foot had in 1983. At the end, he would struggle to do as well as Footy had. Early information justified that assessment. In the Midlands and the North, Labour MPs were full of gloom. There were reports that their vote was as solid – as butter which had been left out in the sun. Their supporters felt no affinity with Mr Corbyn. Inasmuch as there still is a proletariat in the industrial areas, it has nothing in common with the poly-tariat from the coalfields of Islington or the steelworks of Camden. Some Tories thought that their party could triumph, winning seats which it had last held in the 1930s, and even better still, ensuring that the Tory social narrative would dominate the centre ground of British politics. Labour, meanwhile, would be left to clear up the wreckage of Corbynism after the hearse’s car-crash while the Liberals had to cope with tiny Tim, toddler Farron. The Tories could have been in for fifteen years.

Six weeks ago, that was not only the stuff of Tory dreams. It was the theme of Labour nightmares. Six weeks is a long time in politics.

As the week rolls on towards Thursday, influenced, no doubt, by the latest terrorist outrage, voters will focus on the key question. Who is to be Prime Minister? As there is surely only one answer to that question, it still seems almost certain that the Tories will win, with an increased majority.

Yet Jeremy Corbyn will probably win at least one-third of the vote. At the beginning, that seemed inconceivable. But Mr Corbyn is the only nation-wide leader whose standing has been enhanced during the campaign, which seemed equally inconceivable early on. (This will, of course, create huge problems for sensible Labour MPs: that is another story for a later day).

It seems equally inconceivable that Mrs May will not suffer a grievous loss of authority. It may be that during the early hours of Friday morning, a number of senior pollsters throw themselves off tall buildings as the Tory gains roll in, while a serene and smiling Mrs May delivers a patronising homily: ‘As my father often said: “Oh ye of little faith”…’. It may be. It does seem unlikely, especially the smile. A diplomat friend is predicting a Tory majority of 50. Foreign diplomats in London are always worth heeding. They are usually able, they take trouble to be well-informed and they try to get it right. Back at home, people pay attention to their forecasts.

For some reason, I think that the majority will be higher: sixty to seventy. But even if that turns out to be true, it is a shockingly bad outcome. So what has gone wrong? There is an easy answer: she and her strategy. The dementia tax did damage, which spread beyond the issue itself. It not only undermined her claims to be strong. It reinforced other harmful impressions.

The entire Tory campaign came across as negative and ungenerous. Its Leader rated low for likeability. Her body language suggested that she did lot like the British people or their country. When the public turns against a politician, they decide that he or she is insincere. So Mrs May began to be seen as insincere. In contrast, Mr Corbyn won marks for sincerity. Talk about liking the people or the country: his record is appalling. But it has not done him a quarter as much harm as it should have: as it would have, if the Tories had not fought the worst election campaign in their history.

Assuming that she is returned to power with a disappointing majority, she will face difficulties with party and Brexit management. There is only one way out of that. She will have to raise her game. Can she? We will find out sooner rather than later. If the answer is “no” she will be in trouble. Much more to the point, so will the country.