Manchester at Tier 3

Greater Manchester will be placed on the “very high” level alert – Tier 3 – on Friday in an attempt to suppress the rising number of Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations across the region.

Tougher restrictions will be imposed throughout Greater Manchester which has a population of 2.8 million. All pubs and bars not serving food must close and all gambling, casinos and areas of soft play are to be shut.

Stricter rules on household mixing will be introduced both indoors and outdoors while people are also being warned not to travel in and out of the area.

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, made the decision earlier today despite days of wrangling with Manchester’s Mayor, Andy Burnham, and other local leaders, over a trade off between the imposition of harsher rules and a financial package to soften the blow that another mini-lockdown would have on jobs.

While a subdued Johnson said at this evening’s press conference that he was deeply sorry about taking such harsh action, he did so after receiving the latest data from his scientific advisers, which he said had left him with no choice but to “save the NHS and save lives.”

You can see why. The latest data shows infections running high, particularly among the elderly, across much of the country. Lancashire and the Liverpool City Region are already at Tier 3 while Scotland, Ireland and Wales are close to national lockdowns so tight are the restrictions.

The Prime Minister also said the government is looking at whether tighter rules should be brought in across South and West Yorkshire and the Midlands.  Local lockdowns, he said, are still preferable to a national freeze.

With the PM at the presser was Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer, who didn’t prevaricate about the looming dangers, warning that acting now would be paramount as it takes two to three weeks between implementing measures and seeing an impact on case rates. Today’s ONS figures show 21,300 new cases and 241 deaths. The number of UK deaths with Covid on the certificate up 38% on the week. However, to put that into perspective, new figures show that nearly half of all deaths this year in England and Wales were those dying in their homes without Covid-19.

Back in Manchester, Burnham described the PM’s decision as “brutal” and criticised the government for not giving him the financial package local MPs and council leaders had demanded. The Mayor has been holding out for £65 million but the government is now offering around £60 million. We think – the numbers are not precise.

Burnham says it is not sufficient to cover the cost of business losses and is still holding out for more. The Prime Minister, however, said that the new job support schemes, together with Universal Credit, would cover 80% of the wages of those affected. Also, he pointed out that one region should not have preference over another. It’s a fair argument, one which Burnham should take on board and one guesses that any ideas that Mayoralties should have the powers to raise local taxes may have bitten the dust.

The row between Burnham and Westminster is complicated by some confusion over the number of people infected with Covid-19 being hospitalised, and those in ICU units in the region’s health trusts. Government figures suggest the number of those being hospitalised will increase rapidly over the next few weeks, which is why they are determined to restrict the spread of Covid-19.

Yet sources at Greater Manchester hospitals say the wards are no busier than they would be at this time of year with the usual respiratory illnesses while some figures show the number of positive cases is falling. Time for some serious facts. The government must start being more transparent on the data, especially when trust is so low and measures like these are being imposed.

And some humour in these depressing times. As one would have hoped, the jokes are flying thick and fast about a possible Maxit: that Manchester will leave the UK with no deal and that Burnham has decided no deal is better than a bad deal.

Are Brexit talks defrosted? 

Andy Burnham might be looking to Michel Barnier for inspiration in his negotiations. But the EU’s negotiator may be the wrong man as he appears to be cosying up to Lord Frost, the PM’s Brexit sherpa, again. Earlier on today, Barnier tweeted his counterpart, saying they should make the most out of the little time left. “Our door remains open,” he said. This pas-de-deux sounds promising. Hopefully, he and Frost will be back to the high-wire act for more talks this week. Barnier appears to be ready to skin the fish if the British budge on state aid.

Watch out for a Harris presidency…

The US polls are getting hotter by the hour. Donald Trump looks to be narrowing against Joe Biden’s poll lead in Pennsylvania while the two are said to be neck-and-neck in North Carolina.

A new poll puts Trump just four points behind Biden in Pennsylvania – a state won by Trump in 2016. It is considered to be one of the key battlegrounds this time round too.

But Biden is still leading the national polls. A 10-poll average tracker suggests that over half of all Americans are going to vote for Biden, with Trump some five to six points behind. Be careful what you wish for. As historian, Niall Ferguson points out in an interview for Reaction, which you can see here on our YouTube channel, a vote for Biden could easily turn out to be a vote for President Harris. And, if you want to see how that might work out, take a look at the troubled state of California to see what happens when the Democrats are in charge.

Maggie Pagano
Executive Editor