Malthouse, Mogg, Morgan memorandum shows the Tory tribe is finally trying to get its act together
The other night we watched Downfall. I can’t think what made us, as a family, choose to watch (again) a film about terrible people trapped in a bunker in a capital city, with history closing in, fighting among themselves and drinking like mad while contemplating a stark choice between oblivion or flight.
Our choice of viewing cannot have been influenced by the Brexit crisis in any way at all, whatsoever, no way. Although I must admit that when Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, said very firmly on Tuesday that there would be no more negotiations with the EU – for you, the negotiations are over – the war film that came to mind was Escape to Victory.
In that implausible production, made at the fag end of the British and US fashion for Second World War epics featuring a host of big name actors, and in Escape to Victory footballers, there are sections that are borderline racist. Other parts of the film constitute unquestionably criminal activity in artistic terms too.
In Escape to Victory, the Nazis want assorted international players held as prisoners of war to play in a Nazi version of the World Cup final to prove that German football is superior, a fact that is not in doubt anyway.
The action opens with Michael Caine being greeted by a Nazi commandant who is thrilled to encounter a notable English player being held prisoner.
Nazi goon: John Colby!
Colby: Yes. Westham United and England. That’s right.
Nazi goon: It’s a shame the war has ended your career.
Colby (cool as a cucumber): Interrupted.
Yes, yes, yes. Don’t mention the War. I did, just there, but it’s a fairly major historical event and hard to completely ignore. I think I’ll get away with it this time, with sensible Reaction readers anyway, if I can make sense of what is really going on at Westminster in these bewildering days.
So, where are we?
As I write this, Theresa May has promised to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement to secure changes but the EU says: “No way, Mrs May, the Irish backstop is here to stay, okay?”
As well as that, assorted amendments are due to be voted on by MPs later today. Speaker Bercow is in the chair having decided which will be selected, which is one of his favourite sports. There will then be a series of votes after 7pm and a lot more pontificating by all involved and quite a bit of running around screaming by several of the more excitable participants.
But by far the most interesting development happened overnight, after news leaked of secret negotiations involving Jacob Rees-Mogg MP and Steve Baker MP (the equivalent of the Don Corleone and the lawyer chap from the Godfather) and former Remainer Nicky Morgan and Brexit-sceptic ministers Robert Buckland and Stephen Hammond. This peace attempt was brokered by Kit Malthouse MP, one of the most sensible people at Westminster.
It is easy to be blasé about such developments, when most Brexit revelations have a news shelf-life of about half an hour, when amendments appear and vanish in minutes, and when no-one can honestly say they follow and understand all of it. Let’s be honest. So dizzying is the crisis that although I was in the Commons chamber last week – or was it the week before? – to see MPs vote on… something that seemed important at the time time, all that is left in my brain now is a distant blur. I recall it was a historic occasion but I’m damned if I can remember exactly what they were voting on in relation to Brexit.
These secret negotiations between the ERG leadership are potentially hugely significant though. Not because those involved have crafted a perfect plan for a way through – no such perfect plan exists. What matters is that the Tory tribe is trying to put itself back together, rather late in the day.
The Malthouse, Mogg, Morgan plan is being shot down by the European Commission, which shoots down everything, until one day it doesn’t. Although there one wonders if they are starting to figure it out yet, as the fanatical Martin Selmayr (head of the EU machine) takes ever more control, according to reports from Brussels, shutting out the milder-mannered Michel Barnier.
Britain faces challenges with no deal, certainly. But Ireland and the Commission are heading for an almighty clash over the need for a hard Irish border which the Brits say they will not put up but the EU will demand.
Of course, the Irish backstop wheeze was inserted in 2017 in the talks to lock in the naughty Brits. It is very clever, but ceases to be clever if it results in creating a situation in which a deal cannot pass the Commons, then no deal happens because the Commons cannot agree how to stop it, and the Irish government and the EU are left fighting about putting up a border. This would be diplomatic triumph revealed as too clever by half historic blunder.
What has actually been proposed by Malthouse, Mogg and Morgan? (As a brand, as a name, there’s a British investment bank waiting to be founded, and then folded as MMM into J.P. Morgan several years down the line.)
The BBC’s Laura Kuennssberg reports: “According to a leaked document, the proposal drawn up by the rival factions would extend the transition period – during which the UK would continue to follow EU rules and pay into its budget – from the end of 2020 to December 2021, to allow more time to reach a free trade deal.”
EU citizens rights would be guaranteed. There would be no customs checks on the Irish border. The UK would pay the £39bn bill to the EU.
This reads very obviously like an attempt to come up with a managed no deal, or a way of continuing trade and protecting European supply chains while giving the EU its money, if May’s deal cannot pass when the EU probably refuses to move on the backstop.
The proposal matters because for months now the Tory party in the Commons has been faced with an intractable problem. There are two extreme groups of Tory MPs – one for pure Brexit, the other for make it all stop – each formed of around 30 people. In the middle sits the bulk of Tory MPs accepting Brexit but keen to get on with it sensibly.
The ministers among the make it all stop crowd have been warning of resignations and extensions of Article 50, but to do what? Join Labour? Start a Tory Remain party with 47 activists and a small cheque from Lord Heseltine? They risk looking very silly in a moment of crisis when duty says they stay at their posts.
These talks suggest that the make it all stop group is splintering, with realists – led by Morgan – realising a compromise has to be made that spans opinion right across to JRM and his merry band, and to the DUP. In return, she has everyone bar a few maniacs accepting that a pure “crashing out” is not a good idea and if the May deal falls or cannot be fixed there has to be an offer made to the EU ahead of March 29th for both sides to manage it. The Eurozone economy is stuttering on the growth front. Here’s the money, let’s be friends and fudge our way through, sounds like a good idea in the circumstances.
Sadly but inevitably, any such compromise will exclude a handful of space cadet Tory MPs who are fixated on the madness of a referendum rerun. But that small group cannot be reconciled to anything short of Ken Clarke becoming some form of benign monarch who cancels what he proclaims silly Brexit, clearing the way for Michael Heseltine to become temporary Prime Minister from the Lords ahead of an Anna Soubry premiership concluding in 2042 with the UK joining the euro.
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, the Tory tribe appears to be trying to get its act together. A little late, of course, and it could yet go wrong. They are trying though.
It’s just party management, cry critics. Sure, of course it is. So what? The Tories are the largest party and party management is a central feature of the British parliamentary system. With their leader incapable of doing it, others are trying and deserve credit. Their actions serve as a reminder too that the Tories, for all their tragi-comic shenanigans, have a ruthless instinct for survival, particularly when faced with an opposition leader who is a fan of the Venezuelan regime.
Iain Martin,
Editor and publisher,
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