Farage the amateur will fail like Mosley before him

Certainly, as Iain Martin wrote here this morning, the Conservative party’s leadership election is being framed with the Brexit Party in mind. Many natural Tory voters don’t see the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage as a movie of the kind with which Hammer Films used to seek to look back fearfully as we left the cinema in the days of our youth. For them it’s not The Return of Dracula; they leave that nonsense to feeble liberals.

Given the Brexit party’s success in the European Parliamentary election and the way it soared ahead of the Tories in the Peterborough bye-election (even if it failed to win that seat), the Johnson-Hunt efforts to hold on to Tory voters who haven’t yet defected and woo back those who have makes pretty good sense. And if the Tory members ultimately opt for Johnson it will be in part because they believe he can match Farage’s star quality.

It’s possible however that the Tories’ anxiety is a bit excessive. There are three reasons for thinking it may be.

First, there is history. New parties have a poor record in the United Kingdom. It took Labour almost half a century to win a Commons majority in a General Election. (The first two Labour Governments were minority administrations dependent on Liberal support.) Yet Labour had the backing of the then powerful Trade Unions and a nationwide organization. Moreover there were Labour administrations in cities and towns over much of the country. Great cities like London, Manchester, Glasgow, Leeds and Newcastle were Labour strongholds long before the party won a majority in 1945. The Brexit party not only has no such history. More importantly it has no such organization.

Second, this matters in a General Election. You can use an election for the European parliament to express a mood, usually dissatisfaction with the Government of the day. People often use local elections and by-elections in the same way.

But General Elections are different. Then you vote for a government or, often, against a possible government. If there is an election this year, the Tories will surely personalise it – they have always been good at doing this. A Tory slogan “Vote Farage, Get Corbyn” will have waverers hurrying back to vote as they have usually voted. Do natural Tory voters love Farage more than they fear – and loathe – Corbyn? Interesting question.

Farage is of course what is called charismatic. He draws crowds. He is the Brexit Party. Without him it would probably collapse as his old UKIP party has done since he deserted it. He can put on a splendid show. Reading accounts of his event at the Birmingham NEC on Sunday when he entered a darkened arena to the sound of air-raid sirens and summoned up the spirit of the Blitz (which he is, of course, far too young to have experienced) had me saying: “what does this remind me of?”

The answer came at once: accounts and photographs of Sir Oswald Mosley’s rallies at Olympia and the Albert Hall in the 1930s. These were impassioned, finely choreographed spectacles. Mosley himself was a tremendous orator. He would make a great speech and his followers were uplifted and assumed things would go their way. They were wrong of course. Mosley’s Fascists never got anywhere. The Leader himself lost every election at which he stood. It was the same when he attempted a comeback after the war. When he contested North Kensington in 1959 the reception was such that he and his followers were certain he was going to win. He got about 5000 votes. Farage likewise has stood for Parliament seven times, lost every one.

Of course Farage isn’t a Fascist. He isn’t even fascistic. He hasn’t burdened himself with damaging associates as Mosley did. Trump – whatever you may think of him – isn’t Hitler reborn; he isn’t even Mussolini. But Farage does resemble Mosley. Nicholas Mosley concluded that his father was a rotten politician; he would make a great speech and then disappear for weeks – off to the Riviera to seduce another woman. Farage may not do that, but he does drop out, apparently when bored. Mosley didn’t work hard enough at politics –does Farage?

The late President Mitterrand was once challenged by a disgruntled member of his Socialist Party. “Young man,” Mitterrand said, “you think that politics is a battle of ideas. You are wrong. Politics is a profession.” Mosley wasn’t a professional; nor in this sense is Farage. Mitterrand was twice elected President of France, reigning in the Elysee for fourteen years. Farage has failed to be elected, just as Mosley failed after he walked out of the Labour Party in a hissy fit.

Of course people will tell you, the rules of the electoral game have changed. There is social media now. This influences the way people vote, and Farage and the BP are masters of social media. Perhaps, perhaps. Journalists, analysts and bloggers are all convinced of the power of social media. This is natural; they all engage in it. They forget that many people don’t use it at all and that many who do use it take little interest in politics. Indeed many of the young who seem to live on social media don’t bother to vote.

Things change and predictions are rash, but I guess that when it comes to a general election the old verities will hold good. People vote for or against a prospective government or Prime Minister. Party organization on the ground still matters, and the professionals beat the amateurs.

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