Lib Dem catastrophe is Jo Swinson’s fault

An election that has pitted two very polarising leaders with poor favourability ratings against each other should have been an opportunity for a liberal moderate to cut through the middle. Jeremy Corbyn is proposing to uproot everything with a radical socialist agenda and Boris will dismantle our partnership with the EU and in doing so change the shape of our economy. Both are prospects fraught with political upheaval and economic risk. This was an opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to stage a major revival after their 2015 punishment beating and 2017 meagre gains.

When Jo Swinson became leader there was an initial surge of hope that the Lib Dems could build on their successes in the European and local elections. Instead, the polls are suggesting that the party is heading for disappointment. There are a variety of reasons for this – the traditional squeeze the third party always suffers and the fear many people have of seeing either Corbyn or Johnson win pushing them to back one or the other. The main factor however is the self-inflicted failure of the Lib Dem electoral strategy and the failure of Jo Swinson’s leadership.

Huge swathes of southern Conservative constituencies should be tempted by a message of moderation, liberalism and opposing Brexit, but it seems unlikely they will breakthrough to the extent they’d hoped for and win back many of the seats the Tories so ruthlessly took from them. With Boris turning the Tories into the real party of Brexit the Lib Dems should be storming through this region.

The main aim of the Liberal Democrat campaign was to stop Brexit, prevent Boris getting a majority and to ensure they held the balance of power after polling day. The polls now suggest that Boris will win a majority and get Brexit done, that the Lib Dems will win few extra seats if any and that Swinson herself is not guaranteed to fend off the SNP and hold her seat. All in all, this looks like a major strategic failure on every front.

When Boris Johnson was struggling with no majority and at the mercy of parliament, he couldn’t get any policies through and had no means of getting Brexit done. Forcing through a softer Brexit or a second referendum seemed a real possibility as the deadlock went on. Instead, Jo Swinson wanted an election and agreed to support the SNP in seeking one, Labour eventually agreed as their non-committal position increasingly looked like cowardice.  This now looks like a step in the wrong direction.

Then Swinson opted to adopt the revocation of Article 50 as their main policy and stood for an election on the basis that the best way to top Brexit was to vote Lib Dem. What this did was immediately ruin their image as a moderate force because their main policy position was extreme, undemocratic and so obviously likely to cause major political turmoil. It was a blunder that set them off on the wrong course straight away.

Revoking Article 50 is not a reasonable or moderate policy. The Lib Dems cannot criticise the Brexit plans of the other parties when they have no plan themselves. Revoke is not a plan, it a recipe for a major political backlash. Too many questions remain about how they can ensure Britain’s EU membership is sustainable and stable when it hasn’t received democratic consent and their revocation has led to a resurgent Eurosceptic movement. This blunder has caused them major issues on the doorstep and turned voters of all persuasions against them.

Then came the initial decision to plaster Jo Swinson’s face everywhere, label themselves “Jo Swinson’s Lib Dems” and run a presidential-style campaign. If you’re going to do this, you better be damn sure your leader is popular and likeable. Instead, the more the public has seen of Swinson, the less they like her. The public have just not warmed to her at all. Another blunder.

Then, even though Brexit obviously dominates this election, the Lib Dems have been left behind as the two main parties have moved onto other subjects such as the economy, tax, the NHS and criminal justice. Labour has boosted its poll numbers by successfully shifting on to other topics while the Lib Dems opted to focus on Brexit – another strategic error (especially considering Labour’s support of a second referendum). The media has been dominated by the opposing positions of the Conservatives and Labour on various policy areas while the Lib Dems have struggled to get a look in.

To succeed in this election Jo Swinson had to position the Liberal Democrats as the liberal, rational, moderate and sensible choice between the Far Left socialist and the populist nationalist. When several MPs from the other parties began to defect there were signs that something very interesting might be happening in our politics. Instead they’ve blown it and Jo Swinson has to accept most of the blame.

They should have campaigned on offering a multiple choice second referendum to settle if we leave the EU and, indeed, how we leave, with the intention that they’d suggest the public opt to remain. There was a wide-open political space for them to position themselves as the only champion of the benefits of the Single Market and of reciprocal free movement rights. There is so much for them to say but they said so little.

That would have given them a credible platform on which to position themselves as the party of business and of the economy. The only party offering social and economic liberalism. That moderate, liberal message could have helped them regain their losses in the many southern seats where many Tories are fed up with Boris, Brexit and the current iteration of the Conservative party. Instead, their extreme Brexit policy drowned out the rest of their message and their manifesto didn’t do enough to inspire.

This should have been a liberal moment. So many Britons are politically homeless and would have have been tempted by a real alternative. Unfortunately, liberals need a leader of real gravitas and someone who can really connect with people. Such a figure doesn’t appear to exist in the shallow talent pool of the Liberal Democrats. Instead they got Jo Swinson, who equivocates over such a simple question as “what is a woman?” in relation to another one of her extreme and unpopular policy positions – transgender automatic self-ID.

The excitement about the building of a new liberal movement on the foundations of the Liberal Democrats has died a death at the election and Jo Swinson is to blame. If the polls are correct and the predicted failure comes to pass, she must accept that the failure is hers and step down.