Leaderless West is in a mess
The most dangerous month is almost over. August is notorious for fatal alliances, mass mobilisations, and world wars. This year, the world might appear to have escaped lightly. After all, few will mourn Prigozhin – though anyone who had thought that they were detecting a weakening of Putin’s power might now think again. There is indeed weakening. But it is occurring in the West.
The great Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz once wrote that war was politics by other means. It follows that if a great power can achieve its objectives merely by diplomatic presence, it will need to use force only in strictly limited quantities. The Russian invasion of Ukraine might seem to contradict that. In an often misused phrase, it is in fact an exception that proves the rule. One can almost feel sorry for Putin. After Obama’s red lines in Syria, which were wiped away by the first whiff of gas, followed by Biden’s wretched scuttle from Kabul, it is easy to understand why the Russians concluded that they had little to fear. The West seemed obsessed by identity politics, while few Westerners had much enthusiasm for the Ukrainian government. Many would still have described it as a regime. The upsurge of emotion in the West plus the Ukrainian populace’s own patriotic response must have come as a rude shock in Moscow.
All well and good, but what happens next? Many hopes rested on this summer’s Ukrainian offensive. They have not been realised. The Russians have dug in, preparing formidable defences. The Ukrainians have suffered heavy losses in men and material. It is hard not to believe that morale will also be suffering. There have been territorial gains, but: “We go to gain a little patch of ground…”
Morale is certainly a problem in the West. In the early phase of the conflict, enthusiasm was high. Ukraine became a romantic war in a noble cause. But that is not easy to sustain when little seems to be happening except stalemate and suffering. Yet it would be disastrous if the West were seen to have lost this War. NATO would be gravely weakened, and what price to any future US Administration’s commitment to the defence of Europe?
We are at the mercy of events. Perhaps there will be limits to the Russians’ endurance. Mother Russia is all very well. But will the mothers of Russia be willing to see their sons herded off to the meat-grinder, conflict apparently without end? “Those who die as cattle.” Could a Russian Wilfred Owen inspire a revolt on social media? Or might it be Ukrainian mothers who cry “enough.”
Given the military impasse, it is very hard to see how this war can end without an unsatisfactory compromise. There have been suggestions that the Chinese might act as brokers, yet they might feel that there is no urgency in bringing peace, when the present mess is undermining everyone else. China is as enigmatic as ever. The Xi regime has been a growth-ocracy reinforced by nationalism. Offer the people higher living standards, while making them feel good about themselves: President XI promised a decisive break from the century and a half during which the Chinese endured constant humiliations. For a time, he did seem strong and stable, as it were – but now? If the growth falters, can Xi retain control? Might he be tempted to distract attention by trying to seize Taiwan? There is also a lot of potential lebensraum in Siberia, north of the Amur River. Again, we wait on events: none predictable, few auspicious.
This applies equally to the United States. The thought of a Biden-Trump re-run has already exhausted the language of incredulity. American friends always look as if they are ready to quail under censure, as if foreigners are all about to protest: “How could you do this to the world, not to mention your own country?” Apropos the Presidential election, I have heard two interesting rumours. The first is from a well-placed Israeli source. Apparently, Netanyahu does not think that Biden will last to fight an election. The next is that a most unworthy rival is lining up to be a replacement.
Gavin Newsom, the current Governor of California, is one of the worst Governors who has ever been in charge of an important state. In major cities, crime is running amok: law and order, breaking down. This has serious economic consequences. Businesses and able individuals who can stand the chaos no longer are emigrating, especially to Texas. One would have thought that after such a record, Newsom would be hooted out of office: the modern equivalent of being tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail. One would have gone on to assume that anonymity would have been his only respite from life-long execration.
Not so: the creature is ready to run for President and his prospects cannot be dismissed. His principal support comes from the uber-rich hyper-liberals who live in gated communities well protected by security guards and who have no interaction with the squalor and criminality that ordinary Californian city-dwellers have to endure. Beverly Hills and similar areas exempted from reality have provided him with all the money he needs. Governor Newsom has attributes. A charismatic narcissist in a long tradition stretching back to Alcibiades – recent examples, Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau – he looks and sounds like Hollywood’s beau ideal of a president. His plutocratic backers seem oblivious to his character. When it comes to moral substance, he would drown in a puddle. This is a man without any redeeming features. But suppose it became clear at the Democratic Convention that Biden not only cannot run, but he can barely walk? What then? The party is ready to be thrown into confusion – and then Governor Newsom reveals that he has a campaign ready to roll as soon as he turns a key. He might seem like the solution to the leadership vacuum.
Moreover, in the last few weeks he has tried to re-invent himself as a believer in law enforcement. What breathtaking impudence. Is there no limit to the man’s hypocrisy and cynicism? Evidently not, but there surely must be limits to the voters’ credulity. It would seem natural to believe that a half-decent Republican campaign would destroy him simply by pointing out his record. Does the rest of the country really want to be Californicated? But there’s the rub. A half-decent Republican campaign, under Donald Trump seeking to be President jump-suit? Goats and monkeys. Is the Western world going mad?
There is certainly no comfort in Spain. A man kissed a female footballer on the lips. He should not have done so. There would probably have been no complaint if it had merely been the cheeks. As it is, no one seems to be talking about anything else. Perhaps we should not be surprised. As football has become Europe’s most important religion, he has in effect been guilty of blasphemy. There would have been much less trouble if he had insulted the Virgin Mary.
The world may have survived August. But Western civilisation continues to decline.
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