Latest madcap wheeze by Boris means the government is now blocking Brexit
There has been a change in the air pressure in the Commons chamber since Boris Johnson produced a revised deal with the European Union. In the first phase of his premiership much of the place hated him. Those of us looking on from the gallery could see it written on the faces of opposition MPs. Some of them contorted their features every time Boris opened his mouth. Tories, worried he wasn’t a great Commons performer, watched to see how he would do.
In getting a deal he proved his critics wrong and grew in stature. Those saying he had caved sounded bitter. Wasn’t compromise what they wanted? He got a revised deal and moved into phase two of his premiership.
As a result there is now greater, albeit grudging, respect. The dealmaker Johnson, with his friendship with President Macron, is growing into a bigger figure on the international stage. The Commons this week still preened and roared but it had about it a jaded, defeated quality. He is winning. Or he was.
The shift in attitudes gave Johnson an opportunity to, as he puts it, get his Brexit deal done, probably in the next few weeks.
This week the Prime Minister appeared to have picked up on the altered dynamics. In the wake of Oliver Letwin’s ridiculous venture to bugger up Brexit on last weekend’s not so super Saturday, Johnson’s team flounced around a bit on the question of complying with the Benn Act that mandated a request for an extension. By the middle of the week, Johnson had opted for a calmer approach. Defeated on the Programme Motion, making time for consideration of the legislation needed to make the deal law, he paused rather than withdraw the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. It was sensible and appreciated by more thoughtful MPs.
Then came Thursday at 5pm and the decision to… well, what? The gambit to demand an election before Christmas as a condition of allowing parliament to debate the Brexit bill, and pledging to go on strike unless MPs submit, over-complicates matters at just the wrong moment.
An MP, a former Tory and a respected minister seeking to vote to leave the EU, was appalled. He asked me: “Can you work out what they think they’re doing? It is another needless mistake.”
He is right. The effect of the latest madcap wheeze is to make the government look ridiculous.
At a moment when a weary Commons had made the psychological adjustment to accepting that Brexit will happen and that the WAB can pass, Number 10 introduced counter-productive confusion.
When they should have been calmly proceeding with the bill, they have created a situation in which they – the government side – are holding it up. They are now literally blocking Brexit themselves rather than getting it done.
This is not to say that the government should have rolled over for MPs on the WAB. Far from it. There are legitimate concerns on the part of ministers about what the Commons could attach to the bill. Some MPs want to amend the WAB to death. One group wants to attach a Customs Union to the future relationship, a bananas idea. No leading economy could be stuck inside someone else’s customs territory yet not in its single market. Such an arrangement would be an awful idea, the worst of both worlds. The point is, of course, that those pro-CU MPs want the UK to end up in the EU Single Market too and hope via the CU amendment to bounce and bind a future government.
To which the government, and the EU, can and should say: forget it, MPs in this knackered Commons are getting ahead of themselves.
Both the government and the EU should keep pointing at the agreement and say “this is the deal.” Take it or leave it. Parliament cannot negotiate the next phase with the EU on the floor of the Commons.
The time for this debate on the future relationship is early next year, once Britain has left the EU and during and after an election. The nation’s political parties can make their case – closer alignment or a looser relationship – in an election early next year and then when there is a new Commons.
The Labour party can become the party of the CU and SM if that is what floats its boat. The Tories will, presumably, stand for a looser relationship and an independent British commercial policy. The voters will have a say at elections, and the next contest will not be the last. The debate will run – hopefully not at the top of the news every day – for years.
After Brexit, the more hardline Brexiteers will be compelled to confront the various trade-offs that come with international commerce. Simultaneously, Remainers will have to adjust to being out and making a persuasive argument for associate member status. It should be healthy to hold a proper discussion on Britain’s place in the world.
To get there – to get out, next month – Johnson should have agreed an altered Programme Motion but made clear that any major change constitutes the destruction of the agreement with the EU. The deal is the deal. Minor elements of it might be adjusted, after discussions with the EU. But the fundamentals of the deal are what the leaders of the 27 and Johnson signed up to. Bolting on major additions is not on.
Choosing that approach Johnson would find himself on the moral high ground, respecting the European negotiation that has just been completed. And holding in reserve – if Remainers or the ERG try it on before Brexit – the option of canning the whole thing (the deal) if Parliament uses the extra time to try to redesign the deal.
In tandem with this, Johnson could have built on his recent pledges of an increased role for the Commons in monitoring the progress of future talks. A cross-party working group should be established with government help.
Instead of this, the government and the Commons are stuck again. With the UK waiting to find out what the EU – which has taken back control – decides on the length of an extension.
There is one option that might unlock the door to Brexit next month, however, and it is the wish Johnson is gambling on coming true. President Macron and Johnson get on, as two big political beasts. Boris speaks French and his campaign to woo an initially sceptical Macron has – for now – worked. The British and the French become more entwined by the day operationally on defence, security and intelligence. The process started under David Cameron and it has accelerated. The continent’s two major defence powers are the UK and France. After Brexit, these bilateral links will become even more important on both sides.
Perhaps Macron will help his new friend out and engineer a super-short delay of only a fortnight, forcing the Commons to get on with the deal with minimal messing about. There are contradictory signals being sent by European capitals.
Either way, Boris Johnson was this week on a more statesmanlike path toward getting Brexit done, next month. Now, everyone is back going round and round in circles.
Nevermind. It is the Rugby World Cup semi-finals tomorrow and Sunday and two terrific matches are in prospect.
Have a good weekend.