Labour is in a worse mess than the Tories

I remember a conversation with Tony Benn in the autumn of 1978. He declared that socialism was inevitable. The forces of history were on its side and could not be gainsaid. There was only one factor that could delay it: a dithering Labour government, like the Callaghan one, whose failure to take its opportunities would leave its supporters confused and demoralised. So the vital task was to purify the Labour party, ensuring that the next Labour government would not falter. As for the short-term electoral consequences, they were irrelevant. If history is on your side, what does it matter if you lose an election?

Until recently, that would have sounded like political archaeology. But at the time, it was chilling. Back then, Mr Benn was not the only person who thought like that. During the debates over the 1975 European referendum, E.P. Thompson wrote that with a bit of luck, we would wake up one morning and find that we were in a socialist society. A little later, Bron Waugh, alarmed by Mrs Thatcher’s zealotry, wrote that the only thing in her pretty little head was getting to 10 Downing Street. She did not seem to realise that if she came unstuck, Tony Benn would be ready to pounce. A fair number of young Tories, while understanding Bron’s anxiety, were ready to stifle their doubts because they thought that she was the last and only hope. If she failed, it was all up with the country.

O we of little faith. She did not fail. While she saved the country, Tony Benn became a tea-drinking fanatic who could safely be indulged as a national treasure because all his isms had turned into wasms. But Bennism was not dead. An archaeological exhibit has come to live and climbed out of its glass case. One man had kept the faith, Jeremy Corbyn, the once and future Bennite, has spent more than three decades guarding the master’s flame and cherishing the Bennites’ ambitions. If you believe the latest polls, he has a real prospect of becoming Prime Minister. Even if you disregard the polls and place your confidence in the British people’s good sense, Mr Corbyn is in a strong position to achieve one Bennite goal: taking over the Labour party. Even if the election had gone as expected, it would not have been easy for the Labour moderates to, as it were, take back control. Now, it will be almost impossible.

So how do the moderates respond? Jeremy Corbyn is not about to become a social democrat and still less will John McDonnell. The sane wing of the Labour party fought the election through gritted teeth while planning on the reckoning, post mortem. There is now likely to be a reckoning, post resurrection, and they will be the victims. In the interim a lot of Labour MPs must be asking themselves a crucial question. Do I think that there is any hope of a Labour government? If so, would that be a dream – or a nightmare.

I am reminded of another conversation which I heard about later. In Early February 1974, after Ted heath called his doomed Election, Roy Jenkins ran into Ian Gilmour. “I trust that you are confident of winning this Election?” said Roy. “By no means” replied Ian. “It could all go horribly wrong.” “In that case, you have been utterly irresponsible. We are in no position to form a decent government.” Nor were they. Despite the presence of Callaghan, Crosland, Healey, Jenkins himself, Peter Shore, Eric Varley, Shirley Williams  – plus of course Wilson: a contemptible figure but not a negligible one – it was a dreadful government. A Corbyn administration, with Mr McDonnell as Chancellor and Diane Abbott at the Home office: the thought chills the blood.

So what are the sane-ites going to do? Before the general election, it was rumoured that preparations were advanced. If the Cor-Bennites could not be dislodged, a shadowy group of rich donors was said to be ready to finance a breakaway. According to the latest rumours, some of the backers have been so stunned by the result that they cannot think straight, while others are in “wait and see” mode. There are also those who cannot bear the thought of breaking away from the Labour party just when it seems poised for power.

One sane standard-bearer has neither lost his courage nor his judgment. He cannot bear the thought of Mr Corbyn poised for power. A thoroughly likeable fellow, Philip Collins of the Times is a centre-Leftie who is always readable. I hope that he will forgive me if I pay him a further compliment. Wise Tories pay attention to every word he writes. Determined to have no truck with Mr Corbyn, he is calling for a split and has identified its leader: David Miliband. He has a sort of point. The Milipede over the water is the more impressive brother. There is also a precedent: Roy Jenkins returned from Brussels to help found the SDP. But David Miliband is no Roy Jenkins. Enjoying himself in New York, he has become a forgotten figure in Britain. He is not the man to break the mould of British politics. That requires a Roy Jenkins with a touch of Garibaldi, or a David Owen capable of being collegiate. Milipede major probably would be collegiate, but he would send everyone to sleep. He is not nearly as charismatic as Bill Rodgers, the half in the Gang of Three and a Half.

Mr Collins ought to be looking for a slightly more left-wing version of President Macron. There is no such person in sight. Perhaps he should push himself forward. It would be a delightful irony if the next Opposition leader to be a serious runner in the race for power were to emerge from Rupert Murdoch’s stables.

But in the Cor-Bennites’ eyes, Philip Collins has another equally grave strike against him. Before working for The Times, he wrote speeches for Tony Blair. His and the moderates only hope is a further Labour defeat, in which the Tories achieve something like the majority which Theresa May should have won.

That is difficult but not impossible. The Tories have a number of assets. The first is that next time they face the voters, there will be a decent campaign. The second is Jeremy Corbyn. Now that he appears to be a candidate who could win the Premiership, he and his closest associates will come under scrutiny. This will not be the crude, cack-handed nonsense that we saw during the last campaign. It will be done wittily, in the way that Chris Patten dealt with Neil Kinnock in the 1992 Election and those in charge of the process have another advantage. Some of the Cor-bennites are very nasty indeed. The SWP seems to have infiltrated their presence  in the social media and to be determined to perpetrate vile abuse. That will not work for long. Most British voters have a sense of how politics ought to be conducted, and the adolescent rabble which now worships Mr Corbyn will put enough people off to help kill his chances.

The Tories also need a new leader and a new policy. The leader has not yet emerged. Perhaps the party conference could become a preliminary hustings. There could be an interesting range of candidates; I have detected a growing interest in some potential stars below cabinet level. As for the cabinet itself, Philip Hammond seems to have put a few toes in the water. Mr Hammond is a man with many strengths. He is supposed to have said that if Theresa May could become PM, so could he. While that is undoubtedly a true statement, it is hardly an inspiring one. To be better than Mrs May is a necessary condition for becoming Tory leader. It is hardly a sufficient one. There is another respect in which the comparison with her is not helpful. It makes people think about robots. Although the Chancellor is clearly a vastly superior robot to the PM – a Rolls-Royce to a Trabant – the Tory party has moved on, or rather, moved backwards. Forget robots; red-blooded Tories want a human leader. They will not wish to replace the May-bot with the Ham-bot.

Until a few days ago, this anti-robot mood could have had serious consequences. Think of the least robotic figure in British politics. You have got it in one: Boris Johnson, the only Foreign Secretary who could almost make Emily Thornberry look like a plausible shadow foreign secretary. There was always the fear that given his shameless ambition, Boris would need several times Rasputin’s treatment to kill his chances. Well, he did it to himself last week, in one interview with Eddie Mair on the BBC’s PM programme. A squirm-making performance, it was up there with Diane Abbott as a candidate for the worst interview of all time. It is always dangerous to write off Boris. But in that interview, he vindicated every doubt that anyone had ever expressed – and more.

Tories can now hope that they will have a new leader who concentrates on politics, not buffoonery. Leaving Europe on one side – I know; that is not easy – there is one policy area which could determine the course of British politics over the next few years: housing. The Tories must once again become the party of the property-owning democracy. If they can succeed, and reach a sensible compromise on Europe, the Tories will win the next election and open the way for a new centre party which breaks the Cor-Bennites’ hold on opposition politics. If not, they should all be sent to North Corbennia. The trouble is, the rest of the country would suffer the same fate.