Labour leadership: The smart money is on Lisa Nandy

This morning, as I walked to the station, I made a short stop at the bookies to lay £5 on Lisa Nandy to become the next Labour leader. I am not alone in my instincts. Neil Kinnock declared earlier today: “If I were a gambling man, I’d spend a tenner on Nandy”. Indeed, while various polls of Labour members show either Keir Starmer or Rebecca Long-Bailey ahead, with Nandy in single digits, many in the know see her as the dark horse of the Labour leadership race – far from a certainty but worth laying money on while the odds are long.

Already Nandy has made a strong start. As a backbench MP whose most prominent position had been Shadow Energy Secretary in 2015-16 some wondered if she would even be able to get the 22 nominations by Labour MPs and MEPs needed to make it through the first round. A barnstorming performance in the PLP’s hustings – which saw her declare “How dare we tell working class people what’s good for them” – saw her pass this hurdle with ease. She ended up garnering 31 nominations, only two less than Jeremy Corbyn’s preferred successor Long-Bailey and ten more than supposed heavyweight Emily Thornberry.

Facing the second-round, leadership candidates now need to secure the backing of either three party affiliates (two of which must be unions) who together make up at least 5% of the affiliates section, or 5% of Constituency Labour Parties. Already, Nandy is making strides here, snagging the endorsement of the small, but symbolically significant, National Union of Mine Workers. Meanwhile, rumours circulate that she should soon receive the more important backing of the GMB union.

If the GMB endorsement does come then Nandy will only need one more endorsement to put her into the next round, which should be no problem. More importantly it will also give her a backer who can provide a deep a reserve of funds for campaigning, and vital mailing lists.

The one real challenge left for her is a lack of name recognition. Still, she is well known to journalists covering the race, and they tend to be well disposed to her, which might help overcome the issue. Indeed, yesterday she was the first Labour leadership candidate to be interviewed by Andrew Neil. Facing Britain’s toughest interviewer she gave a robust performance, pushing back when he tried to cut her off and laying out her vision for Labour’s new direction centred on winning back small town voters via local devolution.

The question is, will Labour members want to hear what Nandy has to say? Positioned on the soft left Nandy may be able to appeal to members across the party’s spectrum. Even if she’s not their first choice Labour’s ranked-choice system – which has members put down their first and second choices for leader and transfers votes accordingly if the first choice is knocked out – could work well for her if she fights her way into second place and becomes a rallying point for those opposed to the front-runner.

Her message that she is the one to revitalise Labour by winning back small towns and rebuilding the “red bridge” between them and cities is also lent credibility by the fact she was a local councillor in Hammersmith, London before she became the MP for Wigan. She also founded the Centre for Towns think tank in 2018, giving her real policy chops in this area.

Nandy’s proposals for devolving greater powers to towns also chimes with ideas of municipal socialism, as currently carried out in Preston. The idea is popular with many influential talking heads on the left who could help generate positive buzz.

One must not overstate the case. Nandy’s resignation from Corbyn’s cabinet in 2016 as part of the attempt to force him to step down as leader, and subsequent co-chairing of Owen Smith’s leadership challenge, could alienate those still loyal to the Corbynite project. Her claim today that Corbyn sided with Russia over the 2018 Salisbury poisoning will not help with this.

Furthermore, city dwellers now make up a substantial portion of Labour’s membership. These members might intellectually accept the need to reach out to small town voters, but their willingness to actually make compromises on this point is uncertain. Meanwhile, Nandy’s moves to appease the metropolitan members– such as arguing Labour should continue to support freedom of movement – might become stumbling blocks should she actually win the leadership.

While Nandy has the opportunity to succeed it is also all too possible that she follows the fate of Rory Stewart. Another leadership race dark horse and media darling, his candidacy ultimately went nowhere. Still it seems unlikely Nandy’s fate will be so bleak as to condemn her to run an independent campaign to become mayor of London – if she doesn’t make leader a Shadow Cabinet role surely awaits.