Labour backs a second referendum

Jeremy Corbyn announced this evening that Labour will back a second EU referendum, marking a dramatic shift in the party’s Brexit policy. Corbyn has said such a move is intended to prevent a “damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country.”

The statement issued by the party says Labour will “put forward or support an amendment in favour of a public vote”. It is unclear exactly what is meant by “public vote” and whether, if it were ever to come to fruition, Remain would be an option on the ballot. It is also unclear whether this move towards a “public vote” will come in the form of an amendment tabled by the party leadership, or whether it will come in the form of a party whip on an amendment tabled by a backbencher. Either way, the amendment is expected to be tabled on the day Theresa May brings back her deal for the second “meaningful vote”, most likely on 12th March.

The decision must be taken in the context of the eight Labour MPs who defected to The Independence Group last week. Indicating that Labour will support a second referendum of some kind appears to be an attempt to prevent more defections, as Remain-leaning Labour MPs become increasingly dissatisfied with the leadership’s Brexit policy.

Despite Labour’s shift, there is still no majority in the house on such a vote. About 12 Conservative MPs have declared support for a second referendum. But Labour MPs in Leave constituencies are expected to resist the move towards a so-called “People’s Vote.” These two facts taken together means that there will need to be significantly more Tory rebels for the amendment to pass.

On Wednesday, Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson will table an amendment which, if passed, approves May’s deal, so long as it is also put to a second referendum. The party has not indicated it will whip its MPs to support such an amendment – yet.

Labour is expected to whip its MPs on Wednesday to back an amendment tabled by Labour MP Yvette Cooper and Tory MP Oliver Letwin, aimed at delaying Article 50 if necessary and preventing a no deal Brexit.

If Labour is successful in bringing about a “public vote” on Brexit (unlikely as things stand) The Independent Group that quit Labour last week will have inadvertently made more significant headway in preventing Brexit altogether than the Liberal Democrats have managed to do over the near 3 years since the referendum.

But if Remain were to be put on the ballot paper it is possible the public would vote for Leave again. Alternatively, it is worth considering that this move by Labour could force the likes of the ERG and the DUP into supporting May’s deal, against their wishes, seeing it as the safest way to deliver some kind of Brexit in the place of the possibility of no Brexit.