Joe Biden’s presidency faces total collapse
There are few things around the reporting of politics worse than hypocrisy. It would be wrong, for example, to have been critical of Boris Johnson’s embarrassing zip wire fiasco from 2012 and to be now arguing that Ed Davey has brought some much-needed entertainment to the 2024 election with his bungee-cord-stretching, inflatable-dinghy-bouncing, lycra-clad Zumba sessions…
Consistency is important.
It’s also important to write about politics without being dragged along by some lazy consensus. It’s usually best to report what you see rather than repeat poorly sourced rumours not backed up by evidence. In the past year, that meant noting when Joe Biden’s actions were too often misreported by a hostile media. Sure, the President has looked old, but too often the media would conveniently frame or crop a story so that important details were left out.
Whatever might have prompted earlier stories of Biden’s decline, very few were evidenced in the public eye. One of the very few (eye-catching at the time, but also puzzling) came from David Ignatius in the Washington Post in September of last year. Hugely well-connected inside Washington and not one to raise alarms unnecessarily, Ignatius annoyed many Democrats when he penned an article titled “Joe Biden should not run again in 2024”. It’s still not clear what prompted the article, which was more of a broad argument about Biden’s age rather than itself being evidence-led. But it was written by Ignatius who is privy to many confidences. Now, it’s beginning to feel prophetic or, at least, well-informed.
Last Thursday changed everything. We saw with our own eyes the President fall apart in the most consequential event of the 2024 election. Biden’s debate performance cannot be ignored, as too many Democrats have spent this week doing. It is also becoming increasingly hard to believe the current equilibrium will be maintained. There is considerable anger among many who advocated for Biden and now feel let down by a White House which has clearly been protecting the President from public scrutiny. White House promises of a press conference and a sit-down with George Stephanopoulos feel like desperate measures that are coming too late.
Democrats have thus far fallen into one of two camps. The first are those who say they’d vote for “Joe Biden in a coma rather than Donald Trump”. A smaller subset of this group includes those who believe Biden should drop out but will support him if he decides to run. This probably accounted for most Democrats last week, especially after Biden’s performance on Friday morning, when he launched a robust (but scripted and on autocue) defence of his candidacy.
A second group recognised that last Thursday changed the entire race and it would now be hypocritical and inconsistent to complain about Donald Trump’s evident decline into the fantasies of his narcissism whilst ignoring whatever afflicted Biden during that disastrous performance.
Seven days later, the wisdom of the second group feels like it is gaining momentum. On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first sitting Democratic in Congress to voice what many are now feeling: that Biden must withdraw from the race. Leaked internal polling hints that the White House is now looking at Biden haemorrhaging support across swing and non-swing states.
Biden’s candidacy is failing and the sense of that failure might well accelerate in the coming days given there has been no explanation from the White House. The story that Biden had a cold seems increasingly weak (the White House has now denied he was taking cold medication). Biden has since assured voters it was caused by tiredness after his foreign travels. The excuse rings hollow. Biden had been back 12 days and had rested at Camp David. In the vacuum of solid information, we have rumours from inside the White House of a president whose character has changed in the past year. Politico offers this dark view of Joe Biden.
“It’s like, ‘You can’t include that, that will set [Biden] off,’ or ‘Put that in, he likes that,’” said one senior administration official. “It’s a Rorschach test, not a briefing. Because he is not a pleasant person to be around when he’s being briefed. It’s very difficult, and people are scared shitless of him.”
Democrats face a tough choice but it’s a choice that will get easier once they accept what now seems inevitable.
The fundamental logic of the November election should be running in favour of Democrats. Many of the standard metrics indicative of an incumbent’s victory remain positive: the stock market, job numbers, and inflation. The issue of abortion is one of the key points where Democrats can leverage support. This week’s Supreme Court ruling on Presidential Immunity armed them with another means of hurting Republicans. “Vote for a President, Not for a King” could be a powerful message if they choose to run with it. Also, and perhaps most telling, there is very little enthusiasm in the country for Donald Trump, even among Republicans.
The problem is that Biden looks increasingly vulnerable and unless the White House can adequately explain what happened, it’s hard to see his nomination being confirmed in August. It’s also notable how Republicans aren’t hitting Biden as hard as they could. They now want to face Biden in November and it’s a fight that Trump will relish. Except for Hilary Clinton who beat him in the popular vote in 2016, Trump has never had to face a younger and more forceful Democrat. That’s a reality Democrats would be wise to remember. Trump is a weak candidate made to look strong by Biden’s frailty.
Any of the options now before Democrats could therefore prove effective in the remaining months of the campaign. Although polling suggests that all Democrat alternatives lose to Trump, the same polling puts Biden behind. It’s also deceptive to think that polling is indicative of the result. Potential candidates whose profiles are currently low cannot be expected to poll as well as Trump who dominates the news.
One option, and perhaps the most sensible, would be for Kamala Harris to lead the ticket. Here there are two options: a straight run for the job in November (the most likely) but perhaps it would make more sense for Biden to hand over power to the Vice President now, ensuring that she’s not only America’s first black and first female president but also the incumbent who would be able to claim she’s been doing the job (albeit for a few months). Nothing suggests that Biden’s temperament (or his family) would encourage him to vacate the White House voluntarily. Harris’s long-reported problems with staff might also be an obstacle. Conversely, she has been an effective advocate for Biden and would prosecute the Democrat’s case better than the President has done or, as it now appears, will ever be capable of doing again.
If it’s not Harris, Democrats are looking to the California governor, Gavin Newsom, who has the youth and, frankly, looks like the Hollywood movie version of a president. He’s certainly been pushing himself in the spotlight with a series of strong defences of Biden, but there are question marks about his candidacy, including his track record in California (rich, extremely liberal member of the West Coast elite) and the fact he was previously married to Kimberly Guilfoyle, now the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jnr and herself a big presence in the MAGA world. The Daily Mail on Tuesday started what is sure to be a trend with a story about “the sleazy California Governor’s infidelities”.
An outside bet might be one of the governors of a swing state, such as Michigan, where Gretchen Whitmer is earning plaudits. Doubling up this logic and picking a running mate from another swing state might give Democrats more of a boost in two of the relatively few swing states that will decide the election. Governor Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania would fit that profile.
And that ultimately is the bottom line: Democrats have options, good options, and potentially all more potent than an ailing Biden. Had he been the leader of the Conservative party in the UK, Biden would already be enjoying his retirement. Democrats need to be merciless if they don’t want this race to slip away from them.
@DavidWaywell
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