It’s not all over for the Tories, yet

So what is actually happening out there? For those involved in politics, close interest has now taken on the intensity of obsession, and there are still nine months to go before our General Election. Equally, why confine oneself to the UK? There are two wars in, as it were, progress – not to mention a dozen other danger zones, which could include Capitol Hill and the White House. 

That global axis of instability does not seem to include British electoral politics. The polls have barely fluctuated. Labour would appear to have a bankable lead. That said, so did Theresa May, when she called her election. The pollsters may be receiving a clear message, but can the voters be trusted not to change their minds?

A number of MPs to whom I have spoken say the same thing. “The country’s in a mess,” they will often be told. “None of you politicians seem to be any good. So we might as well give the other lot a go. After all, they couldn’t do any worse.” Sometimes, the voter on the doorstep makes an exception for the Member who is canvassing. Sometimes the voter is assured the MP is trying their best. The MP goes away wondering: “Do they really think that I’m doing a good job or do they simply have good manners?” It is a pretty depressing picture. One feels that the average conscientious MP deserves better, but so do the sovereign people.

The Tory party has been here before. From 1995 onwards, nothing appeared to be going right: the tumbrils were rolling inexorably towards the electoral guillotine. Above all, John Major never had any luck. it seemed as if anything that could go wrong would go wrong.  

Yet in 2024 there are two crucial differences which ought to prevent Tories from a final surrender to despair. First, Rishi Sunak can still get a hearing, which Poor John Major was denied. Second, we live in a dangerous world. This October/November, many voters might be asking themselves which is the less risky alternative. That is where David Cameron could help.

The new foreign secretary has already made a considerable impression on their Lordships, and not just because the Upper House feels gratified by the presence of a very senior minister. When he speaks, it is standing room only in the Chamber. There is effortless command and authority.

To all of that, there might seem to be an obvious problem. When Lord Cameron addresses the Lords, he is talking to an unelected audience and must be acutely aware that he is unelected himself.  But a retort along those lines might well have more wit than wisdom. On television, he is effective and reassuring, which does reach large numbers of voters. The contrast between the foreign secretary and the shadow one, David Lammy, must surely work to the Tories’ advantage. 

In October 1964, Labour defeated the Tories by 13 seats. Immediately afterwards, the Chinese exploded their first atom bomb, and Khrushchev fell. In that era, when we still regarded ourselves as a world power, important international events might still have influenced British voters. Some commentators wondered that if China/Khrushchev had happened a few days earlier, it might have brought about a Tory victory. We will never know the answer to that, but what about this October?

Let us suppose, as seems more than likely, that Israel/Palestine and Ukraine are still unresolved while other tensions are growing – and Donald Trump is about to win re-election. What effect would that have on the British electorate?

A number of people might simply want to hide under the bedclothes in the hope that if we ignored the rest of the world, it would ignore us. But I suspect that this might not commend wide agreement as a sensible approach. A foreign secretary who clearly commands widespread respect throughout the world could easily seem to be a vital national asset.

As the election approached, this would require careful handling. Attempts at electoral low blows might well be counter-productive. A statesman-like demeanour comes naturally to David Cameron and that should impress many voters. It would impress them even more if he could help to sort out immigration. There, the position is still unclear. 

Last week’s vote was a pause in the battle, not a resolution. Sunak and others are aware of the need to drive the issue off the headlines, sooner later than later. But it is still not clear how that could be achieved. 

If that did happen, the government could make every effort to focus the public mind on the economy. It ought to start that process by giving a coherent account of the last few years’ events. Forget Liz Truss’s dégringolade and concentrate on the two important five-letter words: Covid and Putin. Having inherited a world banking crisis, the Tories took the tough corrective measures necessary to stabilise the British economy. As a result, they can now make optimistic plans for the future, which will include tax cuts.

In all this, Rishi Sunak and his ministers should not be afraid of intellectual arguments. Most people are aware that these are serious times and they will not be impressed by politicians who talk down to them. Seriousness comes easily Sunak. Leavened with a bit of humour, he could sound much more persuasive – and indeed much more human – than Keir Starmer. 

It may of course be that much of the public has made up its mind. But it might also prove that this world is too uncertain to be certain of anything. So the Tories just have to keep fighting and hope. 

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