Israeli election deadlock is a chance to restart peace talks

In the wake of last week’s Israeli elections some imagination and a discreet venue for talks are required to enable momentum to restore Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

It had been suggested that the Trump team led by his son in law Jared Kushner were planning to launch their long-awaited peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians. The close result raises the prospects of weeks of wrangling between the parties before a new government can be formed in Jerusalem.

Much of the campaign was about the fate of the outgoing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and that is the focus of much post-election argument. If he loses office, he faces the likelihood of trial on three corruption charges.

Netanyahu hyped his campaign by talk of war and the threat, from Iran, from Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. He promised the annexation and military occupation of the Dead Sea and Jordan valley, and lumps of the Palestinian West Bank. All Jewish settlements would become Israeli territory, including the tiny settlement in the heart of the ancient city of Hebron. He threatened a ground war to stop the rocket attacks from Gaza – but this would happen only at a time of his own choosing.

Annexations in the West Bank and war in Gaza would put paid to any serious launch of the Trump peace plan this side of the US presidential elections. It would put an enormous burden on the Israeli Defence Force ground forces – which would have to become largely an army of occupation. Palestinians would have little chance of achieving a meaningful state. Israel would then own the Palestinians and their destiny lock, stock and barrel.

Equally, Gaza will continue to be intractable. Politics there is stuck – exacerbated by the current standoff between Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Meanwhile the population by next year will push 2.1 million – making it one of the most inhabited and deprived pockets of land on planet Earth. The Gazans are stuck with natural water supplies running out, broken infrastructure and nowhere else to go.

Israel’s two 2019 general elections have left the political system jammed in psephological gridlock. The two leading blocs, Blue and White on 33 seats and Likud on 31 cannot go it alone. They have to do deals with either the Arabs of the Joint List, now up to 13 seats, or the various Orthodox parties. The ultra-Orthodox, the Haredim, and their role in Israeli society – whether they should be compelled to undertake military service, for example – pose unavoidable questions for any incoming governing coalition.

The problems of the West Bank, the settlements and the privations of the Palestinian farming communities, and above all the very viability of Gaza are worsening. Trump and Kushner seem to sense this. We hear less of the Christian Zionism espoused by the likes of Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence in Washington – though Trump is more than aware of the electoral value of the Evangelicals in his party.

The autumn season at the General Assembly is the time to start talking. Trump himself likes talking – and talking about talking. But as Ecclesiastes the preacher seemed to sense that between the time to keep silence and the time to speak, there is a time to whisper – purposefully and privately. If no one is doing this now for Donald J Trump, he may find himself in the autumn of his presidential career faster than he may care to imagine.