Is the international reputation of British universities fizzling out?

UK universities have seen a marked decline in their standing on an influential global ranking list, published by QS, this year. Almost three quarters of all UK universities saw their ranking drop and those at the very top were not spared. Oxford slipped from fourth to fifth and University College London fell from eighth to tenth.

The only UK university in the top 20 to improve was Imperial College, which climbed one place to eighth. While the UK still remains a global leader in higher education, with some of the world’s best institutions, these are the worst rankings the UK universities system has ever received. They are also the culmination of four years of continuous decline by the UK on this ranking system.

A further fall might well be expected next year. The toll coronavirus looks set to take on the British university system is potentially devastating. Even before the crisis things looked increasingly precarious. Low pay and a bleak academic job market had driven large numbers of university lecturers to strike, disrupting students’ education. Meanwhile, even as they underpaid their staff, universities felt confident enough in their finances to binge on debt. In the academic year 2018/19 27 universities ran deficits of over 15%, and an eye-popping 151 had liabilities worth 100% or more than their total assets value.

This debt binge, and the fact universities felt confident enough to embark on it, was fuelled by the rapid growth in the number of students. In 1994 271,000 students were accepted into UK universities via UCAS applications. In 2019 this figure was 541,000 were, nearly double. For universities, students are revenue and they compete to attract them. The competition has only grown fiercer since the government removed the cap on the number of students universities could admit in 2015.

Non-EU international students were particularly prized as they pay far higher fees than the capped £9,250 paid by students from the UK or EU. At the University of Cambridge, for example, they might pay anywhere between £22,227 and £58,038, depending on their course. No wonder their numbers boomed, increasing from 11,000 students from the EU and 8,000 students from the rest of the world in 1994 to 32,000 and 45,000 respectively in 2019 – increases of 285% and 298%. That year international students contributed over 20% of the fees at 48 UK higher education institutions.

This mix of competition and near universal expansion pushed a boom in building. Universities erected swish new campuses and modern buildings to accommodate the sharp increase in the number of the students, and to attract yet more students to fill them.

However, there does not seem to have been a concomitant expansion of staff numbers to cope with this influx – declining staff to student ratios are a key factor behind the UK universities’ slumping ratings.

Now the constant stream of new students needed to finance this looks set to dry up. The coronavirus pandemic means that international students look increasingly like they will stay away. A survey of international students by the British Council found that there will be perhaps 14,000 fewer students coming to UK universities from eight East and Southeast Asian countries, a financial blow worth some £460 million.

Who can blame them, when one compares the relative successes of countries such as Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and (eventually) China in controlling the spread of coronavirus within their borders, against the UK’s shambolic performance?

Universities are turning desperately to domestic students to try make up some of the shortfall. In response, the government has actually reintroduced a cap, only allowing universities to take on 5% more domestic students than the previous year, in an attempt to stop top universities hoovering up domestic students at the expense of less prestigious institutions. It has also promised to fund 10,000 more places.

Difficulties abound here, too. A recent study conducted by the LSE for the University and Colleges Union found that perhaps 17% of potential students would defer going to university if restrictions affecting classes and normal university activities remained in place. The financial hit would stand at around £760 million. Nonetheless, a number of universities are still planning to move large parts of their teaching partly or wholly online.

Nor can universities expect much support from the government. While it is funding more places, and has brought forward £2.6 billion in payments to help tide universities over, it has firmly rejected the concept of a bailout.

As a result it seems likely that under financial pressure universities will make cutbacks. The University and College Union has estimated up to 30,000 jobs are at risk. Some universities have already started laying off staff. Inevitably, this will further worsen the staff to student ratios and hence UK universities’ global standing further still.

As things stand, universities and the bodies representing them are talking in terms of the years needed to recover. However, one might reasonably ask if there ever will be a complete recovery. Notably, the universities which saw the most marked improvement in the global rankings this year were Asian ones. As more Asian students contemplate attending universities closer to home rather than abroad, they will be finding that many of these universities are as good, if not better, than a great deal of what is offered in the UK.

As ambitious students attend Asian universities it seems likely that their own standards will further improve. The UK university system, already groaning under pressure, may struggle to right itself. The difficulties will be increased by the struggle to attract international students so vital for their financial health. A number of US universities are looking at similar problems to the UK.

Coronavirus has already dealt a blow to the pretensions that the best governments are necessarily found in the West. Might the global pre-eminence of Western centres of learning also begin to take a dent?