Is Sunak’s best friend bringing out the PM’s best side?

Rishi Sunak has a new skip in his step. Over the past two weeks, the Prime Minister has set the agenda and hogged the headlines with two dramatic new policies – first on Northern Ireland and now illegal migrants – both of which have electrified Westminster and seen the first lift in the polls for the Tories in months.

What’s behind Sunak’s strong-man approach? Or should that be who? Insiders say they see the light touch of James Forsyth, the PM’s new political secretary and one of his closest school friends at Winchester College. They suggest that Sunak’s decision to hire Forsyth as his political consigliere has sharpened up his tone and messaging, and given him renewed confidence. And confidence, as we know, is infectious.  

Since joining Sunak at No 10 at the turn of the year, the former political editor of the Spectator has kept a low profile. And that is as it should be: as an ex-hack, he will know better than most that the best political advisers are invisible, working quietly but effectively behind the scenes. Forsyth’s job is that of Mr Fixit, joining up the dots between the PM, the wider parliamentary party and the policy units, and ensuring they are on the same page. It’s a political appointment, one paid for by the party and not the taxpayer. 

And that’s exactly what has been happening. Whatever your view of the policies, Sunak is no longer the continuity candidate, but his own man. Shock, horror, the PM even looks like he is enjoying himself for the first time since he entered No 10 last autumn. In just two weeks, he has played a couple of blinders aimed at cleaning up two of the government’s biggest messes: the fractious Northern Ireland Protocol and the Channel migrant crossings. He knows that sorting out both are essential if the Tories have any hope of winning back voters, particularly those in the Red Wall, let alone being a contender at the next election. 

First came the Windsor Framework, proposals which seek to resolve the bitter disputes over Northern Ireland, which have been broadly supported by the party’s disparate factions. The shift in mood among Tory Brexiteers. Even among hardliners like Steve Baker, pro-Brexit European Research Group, who is now the minister for Northern Ireland and was brought to tears by the agreement, is palpable. The more intransigent DUP has also been careful not to condemn the framework, giving itself time to review the proposals before coming up with a formal response. All to play for. 

Despite the uproar over the migrants plan, Sunak’s attempt at clamping down on migrants crossing the Channel is proving popular with many voters. The cynics will say the plan is unworkable, a desperate ploy to throw red meat to the gallery. Yet although the tough new proposals have provoked outrage from all quarters from Labour to the UN to Gary Lineker, Sunak has been surprisingly robust in taking the flak. What’s more, he is sticking to his pledge, saying again on Wednesday that taking “tough but fair” action was the “people’s priority,” and de facto, his priority. 

Whisper it quietly but the early success of the Windsor Framework – and the polling on the latest Stop the Boats initiative – has led some MPs to dare to suggest that if the May local elections go well, the PM might call an early election.

Common to these both initiatives is that Sunak – and No 10 – have remained consistent throughout. Both proposals have been given the thumbs up by MPs across the various factions, unlike the rivalry and turbulence of the Boris Johnson era. Even Johnson, and other potential Windsor refuseniks, have bitten their tongues, publicly at least. 

And it’s this consistency of message – and indeed taking control of the message – within the parliamentary party that insiders trace back to Forsyth. He’s been out on the ground “pitch-rolling”, said one MP, who described the new mood set by Sunak over the last few weeks as “such a relief. After the chaos of the last 18 months, we are at last seeing grown-up strategy and a PM who is sticking to his guns.

“He has done the homework, comes well-prepared with the details whether it’s on trade with NI or the ECHR. He is making good decisions: pulling two rabbits out of his hat in as many weeks is not bad.”

What’s intriguing about this relationship between Forsyth and Sunak is that they are the best of friends – and godparents to each other’s children. So close that Sunak was best-man at Forsyth’s wedding: it was obviously a good speech. They remain a tight-knit band: Forsyth’s wife – Allegra Stratton – was the one who came up with the Dishy Rishi moniker during the pandemic while she worked for him at the Treasury. 

Whether it’s working with Forsyth or serendipity, Sunak has peeled away another side of himself. Until recently, the former Chancellor has been something of an enigma, one who has been portrayed as a nerdy, almost cartoonish character with his penchant for Star Wars, Coca Cola, expensive sliders and riding the Peleton.  

Now Sunak is showing he is a doer, a pragmatist who is well-briefed, and a moderate Tory who understands that the public wants the ridiculous trade restrictions with NI solved and an end to the bitter relations with the EU. Yet at the same time, he gets that while they are saddened by the plight of migrants risking their lives crossing the Channel, most of the public want the influx of asylum seekers taking up hotel accommodation costing the taxpayer at least £3 billion or so a year to stop.

That’s why Sunak’s meeting with President Macron on Friday is so important, for two reasons. To thrash out further agreements between the two countries on policing the Normandy coast but also to show the UK and the world that relations with France – and by extension the broader EU – are on the mend. It’s a good image to push. Not even the most belligerent Brexiteer wants to continue the ludicrous bear-baiting with Paris or Brussels. 

So far, so good. Sunak’s next challenge is next Wednesday’s Budget. Unusually, there have been few leaks or the traditional kite-flying from either No 10 or the Treasury in an attempt to soften up the public for either bad or good news. Another example, perhaps, of Forsyth’s political nous? Nothing worse than a poacher turned game-keeper. 

Ironically, the economy is looking a little brighter than even a few weeks ago, and all the signs point to the UK avoiding a recession. Some say there are signs of green shoots. This means Sunak has more room to manoeuvre – about £30 billion or so – than he previously thought because of higher tax revenues. 

The PM has refused to countenance cutting taxes despite a tsunami of criticism from business leaders, even though his instinct is to do so. But he also knows that any decent Budget needs some cheerful headlines and a few jokes. Do the Wykehamists have a third rabbit to pull out of their hats with which to surprise us?  

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