Is London peak falling?
London’s hospitals are less than two weeks away from being overwhelmed, even in the “best case” scenario, according to an official NHS England briefing leaked to the Health Service Journal today.
The worrying analysis was laid out by the London Region of NHS England’s medical director, Vin Diwakar, as he addressed the medical directors of London’s hospital trusts over Zoom.
In London, half of all hospital beds are now taken up by Covid patients. There are 720 spare “general & acute” NHS beds and just 46 spare intensive care beds left in the capital.
Even if the number of Covid patients grows at 4 per cent – the lowest rate considered likely – the NHS in London would be short of nearly 2,000 beds by 19th January. Extra measures are being taken to cope with the spike in demand, including plans to open the London Nightingale.
Medical directors floated the possibility of sending some non-Covid patients to other regions of England. But with the new virus strain rapidly spreading across the country, they acknowledged the limitations of the plan.
At the peak of London’s first wave in April, there were 1,160 Covid patients in critical care. Today the number is 1,075.
The latest ONS Infection Survey published yesterday estimates that, at the end of last week, one in every 50 people in England have coronavirus, up from around one in 80 three weeks ago. In London, the figure was one in 30 people. Other regions were not far behind: with one in 40 infected in the East Midlands and North-West. The South-West, with one in 125, had the lowest infection rate.
Dr Julian Tang, Clinical Virologist, University of Leicester, predicts “this upward trend of cases – and related hospitalisations and deaths – is likely to continue for another two to three weeks as the impact of social mixing during Christmas and New Year continues to be felt”.
Data from the ‘Zoe’ Covid symptom tracker app offers some hope that these predictions are too pessimistic. Professor Tim Spector, the tracker’s principal investigator has shared a graph showing a decline in daily cases in London over the past few days. “We see the first signs that we have reached the peak of new cases in London 4 days ago,” he says. “Let’s hope this continues and other areas follow”.
American carnage
Congress has confirmed that Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States after proceedings were interrupted by yesterday’s siege of the Capitol Building by a mob incited by President Trump.
Clashes with police left four dead and the country in shock at one of the most flagrant assaults on democracy in US history.
Senior Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who until now have been die-hard supporters of the President, have condemned him. Yet more than half of Republicans in Congress backed overturning the election.
The images coming out of Washington have been surreal; one man dressed like Braveheart can be seen howling in the senate chamber; another waves cheerfully to the camera with Nancy Pelosi’s lectern tucked under his arm.
America’s critics have had a field day. Iran’s President Rouhani said the chaos in Washington showed how Western democracy was fragile. China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman was quick to draw parallels with the storming of Hong Kong’s Parliament in 2019, the difference being that in Hong Kong “no one had died.” Russia said that American democracy was “limping on both feet.”
As David Axelrod pointed out on CNN last night, the protestors – labelled as “domestic terrorists” by large swathes of the US media – consider themselves dyed-in-the-wool patriots. They love their idea of America and are absolutely convinced that they’ve been robbed. ITV’s Robert Moore was at the centre of the siege and his jaw-dropping report shows the passions that Trump has leveraged.
The President released a statement today committing to an “orderly transition of power” but also repeated that he did not accept the election result. One source close to the President said Trump had been “ranting and raving” and was “losing it”.
Trump promised American carnage and he’s been true to his word. Thirteen dangerous days lie ahead.
Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
The marriage of rapper Kanye West to reality TV star Kim Kardashian is on the brink of collapse, according to US gossip sites.
The couple, who share four children and an estimated $4 billion fortune, have been married for six years but are now living apart. Kardashian, who is training to be a lawyer, is thought to be preparing to file for divorce.
West, a self-proclaimed genius, was once one of Donald Trump’s highest profile supporters, but has since “taken his red hat off”. In July last year, West launched a bid to become President himself with an incoherent speech during which he broke down in tears. Listening to West speak is a fascinating insight into a narcissism rivalled only by his one-time presidential pal.
Graduation was pretty good, though.
Mattie Brignal,
News Editor