Is Israel readying to attack Iran?
Speculation that Israel is getting ready to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities is mounting today, after the US State Department ordered the evacuation of all non-essential staff from its embassy in Iraq, due to heightened security risks.
The Pentagon has also approved the voluntary departure of families of American military personnel from countries across the Middle East, according to Reuters.
What has prompted the withdrawal advice?
“Well, you’re going to have to figure that one out yourself,” President Trump told reporters, as he arrived at the Kennedy Center in Washington for a performance of “Les Misérables”.
We can make an educated guess.
Officials have told US media that Israel is considering taking military action against Iran as early as next week. And, according to CBS, Americans are being advised to leave the region because Washington anticipates that Tehran could retaliate by hitting US sites in Iraq.
These warnings come as Trump’s talks with Iran over its nuclear programme - an attempt by the US to cut off Iran’s path to building an atomic bomb - appear to have stalled.
Enrichment of Uranium-235, which is used to make both nuclear reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons, is at the heart of the five recent rounds of tense negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Oman. Iran says it is enriching uranium for the peaceful civilian purpose of energy generation while the US believes this is a cover for building nuclear weapons.
Yesterday, in the wake of Iranian supreme leader’s rejection of a US proposal that would have phased out Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium on its soil, Trump told the New York Post's "Pod Force One" podcast that he was becoming “less confident” that a diplomatic settlement with Iran could be reached.
Hours later, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that, if talks collapse and Trump resorts to military strikes against the Islamic Republic, Iran would retaliate by targeting US military bases in the region.
Tensions have intensified further today after the UN nuclear watchdog released a new report criticising the "less than satisfactory" co-operation from Tehran, particularly in explaining past cases of nuclear material found at undeclared sites. Iran responded by accusing the International Atomic Energy Agency report of relying on "forged documents" provided by Israel, insisting it has “always adhered” to IAEA safeguard obligations and warning that it would respond to the “politically motivated” report by launching a new enrichment site "in a secure location".
This coming weekend, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Oman where he is set to hold another round of nuclear talks with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.
While the threat of an imminent Israeli strike should be taken seriously, it’s also true that announcing an evacuation of US staff from the Middle East could be a negotiating tactic - a way of upping the stakes and pressuring Iran into a deal.
At the same time, there is a growing sense that the window of opportunity for a US-Iran deal could be closing. Meaning a lot is riding on Sunday’s sixth round of talks.
Back in April, Trump refused to lend support to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed plan to launch military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The US President insisted he wanted a chance to negotiate with Tehran first.
This prioritisation of diplomacy over warfare has left Netanyahu impatient. Israel wants to seize on what it sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability: IDF strikes on Iran in October 2024 reportedly eliminated much of the country’s air defences, and Israel wants to strike and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities before Tehran has further opportunity to rebuild its defences.
What is unclear, however, is if Israel would really press ahead with an attack on Iran without active US support.
That said, if no progress is made in Oman on Sunday, then the moment when Washington gives its consent could be nearing.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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