Is Gething’s resignation just the start of Welsh Labour’s troubles?

Vaughan Gething resigned today as first minister of Wales, a mere four months into the job, following a row over his leadership that could just be the start of Welsh Labour’s woes. 

“My integrity matters, I have not compromised it,” an emotional Gething told the Senedd, after four members of his government resigned this morning and called for him to go.

The biggest controversy plaguing Gething’s short stint in office was a months-long row over his decision to accept a £200,000 donation from Dauson Environmental Group, a company whose owner, David Neal, has been convicted of environmental offences for illegally dumping waste on the Gwent Levels. According to BBC Wales, Vaughan Gething also lobbied Natural Resources Wales to go easy on the company.

This afternoon, Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, commended Gething for making “the best decision for Wales”, weeks after publicly defending him. 

The first minister’s short reign will soon be forgotten by many. Though the debacle draws attention to a bigger question: Gething aside, might Welsh Labour – long the dominant party in the region – be in for a bumpy ride ahead?

Wales is a Labour stronghold. In the recent general election, the party won 27 out of 32 seats. The party’s dominance stretches back for over a century, and it has led every government in the Senedd since devolution in the 1990s. Yet Wales could become an increasingly tricky battleground for Labour.

Ironically, the major challenge ahead for Welsh Labour is the same development the party is celebrating. That is handling there being a Labour government in Westminster as well as in Cardiff.

Starmer’s victory will place whoever succeeds Gething under greater scrutiny.

Britain’s new PM has been very clear that a Labour government will not turn on the spending taps. If Wales’ public services fail to improve under Britain’s new government, Welsh Labour can no longer blame underperformance – and its inability to secure more cash for the region – on Tory rule. Regional resentment for Labour could soon build.

All of which creates an opportunity for Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales – and for the Tories if they can recover. The Tory vote share in Wales collapsed at the general election to 18.2%, down 17.9% on 2019.

While Plaid Cymru’s long-term ambition for Welsh independence is only supported by a minority of voters, the party could increase its popularity if it manages to persuade voters that it is the only party truly committed to defending Wales’ interests. 

Already Plaid Cymru’s popularity is slowly building. In the recent general election, it secured four seats in Wales out of 32, increasing its share of the Welsh vote to 14.8% – up 4.9% compared with the 2019 general election. Labour’s vote share was 37%, down 3.7% since 2019.

Welsh Labour “has put party interests ahead of the interests of the nation for too long,” declared Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, this afternoon, as he demanded a snap election in light of Gething’s resignation, rather than allowing Labour to choose another first minister.

The demand will probably amount to little. Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives has already rejected his call for a full-blown election, dismissing it as “very hot-headed in the current climate”. 

Even so, Plaid Cymru’s gains in the 2024 general election have given the party momentum ahead of the next full Senedd election, expected in 2026. And the adoption of a new proportional electoral system for the next Senedd election is also likely to enhance Plaid Cymru’s prospects for a breakthrough.

Between now and the devolved elections In 2026, the party will be eager to exploit any tensions between Labour’s Cardiff and Westminster governments to boost its chances further. 

Welsh Labour cannot afford to become complacent. The SNP’s recent collapse in Scotland – and Scottish Labour’s own fateful demise before that – show support for a once dominant party can quickly implode.