India’s health system buckling under Covid crisis strain

India is in the grip of a deadly second coronavirus wave, with close to 16 million confirmed cases and a record number of daily deaths on Wednesday. But the death toll could be ten times higher than official figures, according to the number of bodies being burned in crematoriums.

On Thursday, India’s health ministry reported the highest-ever one-day tally of 314,835 new coronavirus cases – surpassing the previous record of 297,430 in the US in January. The death toll rose by 2,104 to reach a total of 184,657.

The numbers are stark – but there are fears this death toll is only a fraction of the actual number. According to FT analysis, local news reports from the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar reveal that while at least 1,833 people died of coronavirus recently, based on the number of cremations, just 228 have been officially tallied. In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported and included in official figures.

While the rapid spread of the virus has been partly blamed on the more infectious “triple mutant” Indian variant, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party have also been accused of prioritising domestic politics over public health.

At the start of this year, the government thought it had beaten the pandemic. It kicked off a mass vaccination drive, cast aside face masks and social distancing and permitted millions of Indians to attend the religious Kumbh Mela festival in January.

As recently as Saturday, a mask-less Modi held a political rally for thousands of supporters in West Bengal – he had “never ever seen such huge crowds”. On Tuesday, he warned that India was facing a coronavirus “storm” which was overwhelming its health system.

In his televised address, Modi urged citizens to stay indoors and not to panic. He insisted that the central and state governments, as well as the private sector, were working to ensure that the country’s dwindling oxygen supplies were not diminished.

But the situation is continuing to worsen. Manish Sisodia, Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister, confirmed today that a number of hospitals in the capital have run out of oxygen, shortages of beds have led to queues forming outside hospitals and there are concerns about supply levels of the antiviral drug Remdesivir, even though it is manufactured in India.

Cities including Delhi have imposed short lockdowns in an attempt to control the virus and provide relief to overstretched hospitals, but Modi continues to resist a national lockdown in spite of the spiralling death toll. 

Earlier this week, he said: “We have to save the country from a lockdown. I appeal to the states, they should use lockdown as the last option, and pay more attention to micro-containment zones.”