If Putin strings Trump along, Washington has cards to play
President Biden drip-fed sanctions, Trump could unleash a torrent.
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Putin’s response to a ceasefire in Ukraine appears to be “Yes, maybe”. It’s a start. Now for the details. They will be devilish.
Just getting to a ceasefire will be hard, never mind a permanent deal. Suppose the Russians say they’ll only ceasefire if Washington again turns off the intelligence feed to Ukraine. President Trump wouldn’t take kindly to being told what to do, so perhaps President Putin could fold on that one. But what if he comes back with: "but we need Ukraine to promise it will not regroup, resupply, and manoeuvre"?
If it was agreed the two sides should stay X miles distant from each other, they would want to know what happens if one side violates that or opens fire from a distance. These and other details will need to be ironed out before talks about the "final peace agreement" could commence. If they can get that far, after agreeing where the talks would take place, and who would be in the negotiating teams, even more difficult hurdles would present themselves. It seems clear Moscow will demand that the Ukrainian military withdraw completely from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia has annexed the territories, but Ukrainian forces have held on in parts of them. The Kremlin will want it in writing from Kyiv that it will drop its application to join NATO and commit to neutrality. Other issues would include prisoner exchanges, the width of a demilitarized zone, make up of foreign forces overseeing the deal, and their rules of engagement.
We’ve only got as far as considering the ceasefire because of the fire and fury of Trump’s negotiating style. It may be true that he has put the ball in Russia’s court, but Putin might still backhand it into the White House.
After bullying Ukraine’s President Zelensky into the ceasefire (and minerals deal), Trump fired a salvo at Putin on Truth Social, threatening to unleash a “large-scale banking sanctions, sanctions, and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final settlement agreement on peace is reached”.
The Russian leader is smart enough to at least engage with the idea of a ceasefire, but if it becomes obvious to Trump that Putin is just stringing him along, the Americans do have sticks with which to beat him.
First, there is the threat to increase weapons supplies to Ukraine. It may seem counter-intuitive given Trump’s behaviour towards Zelensky, but he could at least threaten it – after all, it’s good for the US arms industry and even before his inauguration he said this was an option.
There remain more financial penalties Washington could impose on Russia. These include pressuring the Europeans to unfreeze the $200 billion of Russian assets they hold, but instead of returning them to Moscow, seize them. He could even put a price cap of $50 for a barrel of Russian oil and threaten sanctions against anyone who paid more. Russia would haemorrhage money at that price. Biden drip-fed sanctions; Trump could unleash a torrent.
Putin may try to say "Nyet" while persuading Trump he’s hearing "Da". However, if Russia is hurting enough over its losses in blood and treasure, and nervous that Trump could make them worse, it’s possible Putin will eventually agree to a ceasefire.
If so, and if he’s also prepared to end the war "permanently", it's less likely he’ll feel as much heat when it comes to the end game negotiations. Trump would happily give away Ukrainian territory as well as expecting Ukrainian neutrality. However, Ukraine probably wouldn’t agree, and if the terms were too harsh to accept, we’d be back to where we were last week – relying on Europe to stand up.
First though – a ceasefire. It would be a start, but not necessarily a finish.
This assumes a degree of U.S. neutrality and integrity that has so far been absent. Washington's first foray into ceasefire talks was to sit down with the Russians and demand...absolutely nothing. The next round, with Ukraine, was a different story. Donald Trump has never crossed Putin politically or diplomatically, and I see no reason he would start now. To the contrary, all indications are his new international order could have been designed in Moscow - blow up the global trading system, turn your back on and threaten allies, drive your economy into recession. I see no reason why the U.S. won't do Putin's bidding in Ukraine. I hope Ukraine and Europe have the resources and will to resist.