Hunter Biden’s verdict was always going to be a win-win for both sides

In terms of the cold, hard politics, the Hunter Biden verdict was always going to be a win/win situation for the President, and yet, almost paradoxically, also a win/win for Donald Trump. 

Confused? Then welcome to the business end of politics where it’s less about principles and more about spin; where any vice can be fashioned into a virtue, defeats recast as victories, and matters of guilt turned around to imply innocence. Look and see one man’s sexual depravity with a porn star described by evangelical Christians as irrepressible alpha male virility sparing his wife from the burden of her matrimonial duties after childbirth. Witness tax fraud brushed off as “creative accounting” and a land where an insurrection is a “beautiful thing” and “there are good people on both sides”…

Had Hunter Biden been found not guilty on three charges around his possession of a firearm whilst being under the influence of drugs, it would have been the simplest win for the Biden family, and yet would have been politically inconvenient for President Joe. While it would have spared his son potential jail time, it would have condemned Biden to months of accusations that the justice system is corrupt and in the control of the Democrats. 

As it is, a guilty verdict does at least prove again that for a man supposedly weaponising the legal system to prosecute his foes, Joe Biden is doing a spectacularly poor job of corruption. Hunter’s conviction underlines how the justice system operates without this President’s thumb on the scale (something that can’t be said about the classified documents trial in Florida where Trump-appointee, Aileen Cannon, continues to make some questionable rulings in his favour, or the Supreme Court where Trump’s influence is still being felt).

As for the Republicans: the verdict leads to the exact same logic but turned the other way around.

A guilty verdict gifts them a talking point they can use against the President for the next few months. He’s now the father of a convicted felon, they’ll shout, and what other crimes might yet be uncovered about the so-called “Biden crime family”? (And no sooner had I written that line than a statement from the Trump campaign appears on the wires: “This trial has been nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family, which has raked in tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine,” it reads. “Crooked Joe Biden’s reign over the Biden Family Criminal Empire is all coming to an end on November 5th, and never again will a Biden sell government access for personal profit.”). 

But, of course, had he been found not guilty, that would have been even better for the Republican argument. Imagine how they could have weaponised it against the President. It would have been the proof they needed that the justice system is being controlled out of the White House, therefore proof that Donald Trump’s multiple convictions – sexual assault, business fraud, campaign finance violations – across different courtrooms should be overturned too.

Alas, Hunter Biden was found guilty (and rightly so given the evidence). So, what happens next? 

Well, it’s worth remembering that beyond the politics is the tragic story of a man who, as a child, was the only survivor of a car accident in which his sister and mother died, and who lost a brother at an early age to brain cancer. Hunter is a man with demons for which he will now be punished but also given help. It’s unclear how Judge Maryellen Noreika will view the guilty verdict, but legal experts have noted that it’s unusual to see these kinds of charges reach trial without there being some greater context, say, involving armed robbery. A non-custodial sentence would not be a surprise given his lack of previous convictions.

Also, the severity of the crime has become somewhat amplified by the media, as well as through considerable pressure from Republican members of Congress who have used Hunter’s predicament as a pressure point against the President.

It was their pressure which led to the collapse of his previous plea deal after Hunter was originally indicted on tax charges in December of 2023. As part of that plea, he had also admitted to the three gun-related charges. When the plea deal fell apart (his trial on the tax charges starts in September), it left him open to prosecution on the gun charges, resulting in this verdict. 

All of which is to say: this guilty verdict is the natural consequence of an unnatural and politically finessed prosecution by which the accused was not given the usual off-ramp.

Not that it’s worked out for Republicans quite how they expected. All it has done is allow the Biden campaign team to demonstrate that he is no Donald Trump. Biden has now ruled out pardoning Hunter, which is being presented as the actions of a man who believes in the wheels of justice. Only time will establish if that’s true. It could still be a sensible holding position for as long as it remains unclear if Hunter will go to prison. Let’s see what we’re saying in another six or seven months. 

Should Joe Biden win in November, there’d be no reason why he couldn’t overturn any conviction. Once his second (and last term) is secured, even a hard U-turn wouldn’t be that unusual. Pardons have become one of the grubbier aspects of the American presidential system. Trump did it for Stone, Manafort, and Flynn (among many others). Bill Clinton famously pardoned his brother, Roger, who had been found guilty of being involved in the distribution of cocaine, a far more serious crime than anything for which Hunter Biden has been convicted. Biden not pardoning his son would be notable as an exception to recent precedent and, ultimately, a measure of the man’s character. 

But that would be then. Right now, we only have a promise that a pardon isn’t coming and that is a powerful statement heading into November. Both Hunter Biden and Donald Trump were found guilty. Both will face the consequences of their actions, which is exactly as it should be.

@DavidWaywell

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