Here’s to a Brexit deal – it will annoy all the right people

What is that glimmer of light on the horizon? Is it the flickering and faint hope of a Brexit deal that might ensure Britain leaves the European Union in good order before Christmas? Or is it a mirage?

In the hours after Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar announced on Thursday that they had made progress on the thorny question of the Irish border in private talks there was a sudden spike in positive sentiment. The EU today said the progress means intensified talks must take place.

The Brexit crisis has been so wearying – by turns exciting, stressful and deeply boring, but always interminable – that the merest hint of progress towards a resolution induced a wave of what used to be called by psephologists in the 1990s “the feel good factor.”

Not everyone looked as though they were feeling good when they heard the news of an advance.

The high priest of the ex-Tory Remain rebels, Dominic Grieve MP, went on television on Thursday evening with a face like fizz. On BBC Newsnight he denied that he is opposed to any form of Brexit, and through gritted teeth suggested that he welcomed the progress made. All he wants now, if there is a deal, is a “confirmatory referendum,” he said. As soon as the words were out of Grieve’s mouth the meaning disintegrated. Faced with the possibility of a deal – which actually stops no deal and honours the referendum – he fell back on the stale talking points of the People’s Vote campaign that cannot accept it lost in 2016.

After this woeful year at Westminster, if there is a deal that the EU, the Irish government, the British government and a majority of MPs can approve, it seems implausible that there will then be a clamour beyond People’s Vote fanatics to reopen the whole business for months of arguing over the question and then a bitter referendum campaign, in which Leave will promise a third referendum if they narrowly lose.

But is a Brexit deal imminent? There is a danger of everyone getting carried away. Just 48 hours ago the prospect was seen as so remote as to be almost impossible. Things have since swung in the opposite direction.

Currency traders (who often call politics wrong or too slowly) were excited enough to push the pound up today again. At one point it was up 4% over the last two days against the dollar. That’s a serious shift in the right direction, but it reflects a deeper understanding among investors. Britain, if it can get out in one piece, is actually rather well placed in a difficult global environment. Its banking system looks to be well-capitalised and holding lots of cash – in contrast to the recent financial system wobbles in America – and beyond the UK’s ongoing productivity problem there is so much positive happening in bio-science, engineering, digital, education and finance that it is not implausible to see a mini-boom in prospect. If, if, Britain gets out in an orderly fashion.

Is that possible? The meeting between Varadkar and Johnson went well, but as ever with Boris, after the surge of boosterism there comes the tricky business of working out what he has agreed to, or finding out what he thinks he has agreed to or secured.

In that spirit, Rory Stewart, the former Tory and independent candidate for London Mayor, tells an amusing story of presenting. Boris as Foreign Secretary a plan to scale up aid and diplomatic efforts in key parts of Africa. Boris and his officials are assembled to see the presentation. Boris loves it and agrees the lot. Money will flow, he indicates.  Boris makes numerous loud and effusive noises: “We’re going to implement every word of this! Brilliant! Love it!”

The next morning Stewart bounds in to work to get cracking. Ah, say the officials, when the Foreign Secretary said we would do all of this, what he meant was that we would… do some of it.

There is nervous speculation that Boris might have agreed with Varadkar to put a border down the Irish sea, which could drive the Unionists mad.

What seems more likely is that Varadkar and Johnson have devised a new version of an old idea that Northern Ireland is in two customs zones at once, through a system of checks away from borders, collection of tariffs in unusual ways and a pile of money from the British taxpayer. It’s the sophisticated “blarney stone” meets shameless British hypocrisy. This is how it should always have been. Dublin and London preparing a fudge, in which words mean whatever either side wants, and the signing of an agreement that states all will be well, sort of.

If Dublin and London do manage to agree something, anything, and the DUP can be squared, the European Union would be nuts not to jump at it. The alternative is British political chaos spilling into the EU at a delicate moment economically for the continent.

There are other reasons to hope for a deal. If an agreement is concluded and approved by the Commons we can all get on with rest of our lives. The trade talks would become an important second order issue that excites trade lawyers and a few obsessive MPs. And it doesn’t have to lead the news all the sodding time.

A deal would also annoy all the right people. Imagine the look on the faces of Dominic Grieve, Andrew Adonis, John Bercow, Gina Miller, that Jolyon lawyer chap who thinks he’s Tom Cruz in A Few Good Men, and the confused judge off Dragons’ Den.

There’s the former Chancellor too. A deal is worth it just for the deleterious impact on over-promoted Philip Hammond’s inflated self-esteem.

On the hardline Eurosceptic side there would also be embarrassment mingled with fury. The hardliners of the ERG would have to concede that, after all, life is full of compromises. They would have signed up to an adapted version of the May deal, with, as I keep saying, so often my boss at The Times told me I need a new metaphor, the font changed. And that’s it. Plus the Irish border

It is anyone’s guess what then happens if there is a deal. Boris will be hailed as a genius who only went and did it. Or, like his hero Winston Churchill, he will lose the peace. And the Tories, having stored up such a kicking by virtue of incompetence and the sense that the social fabric is fraying, may be marmalised in election by… who?

Anyway, all that can wait. For now there is a chance of a deal.

Fingers crossed. Have a good weekend.