Saracens v Munster on Saturday, Leinster v Toulouse on Sunday – the semi-finals of the European Champions Cup offer an enticing prospect. All four clubs have a proud history of success in the Cup, though the home teams have more recent success to their name than the visitors, and will deservedly start as favourites.
Saracens have been having an odd few months. They are the only club to have won all their European games this season. Even without Owen Farrell they demolished Glasgow in the quarter-final, though it should be said that Glasgow made so many unforced mistakes that even their fondest admirers had heads in hands even by half-time.
Saracens’ away form in the English Premiership has recently been wretched, but this is probably irrelevant. More relevant perhaps will be Billy Vunipola’s involvement in the Israel Folau case: he stupidly posted approval of Folau’s anti-gay outburst and was accordingly booed when he came on as a replacement at Bristol last week. Vunipola is one of the most influential players in the Saracens team. When he plays well, they play well. If he doesn’t, they spend more time on the back foot. One assumes he will play on Saturday and that his team-mates will rally round him – even if some of them may feel a bit less matey than usual. The same will doubtless go for the Saracens support, but it’s all a bit embarrassing, perhaps also unsettling.
Nothing in European matches ever seems to unsettle Munster. This isn’t one of the great Munster teams. They have three or four truly outstanding players – Keith Earls, who has been in terrific form, Conor Murray, who hasn’t, C J Stander and their inspirational captain Peter O’Mahony – but it’s hardly unfair to say that at last half-a-dozen of the team might be described as pretty ordinary – or would perhaps be no more than journeymen if they weren’t wearing the famous Munster red jersey. Characteristic doggedness, the brilliance of Keith Earls, good fortune, and a moment of idiocy by an Edinburgh player got them through their quarter-final at Murrayfield. Man for man they don’t come close to matching Saracens, for a composite team might include no more than four Munstermen, but it would be no surprise to see them prevail on Saturday. Only someone ignorant of the spirit of Munster rugby would write them off.
If Saturday’s match is between two clubs not quite on fire, Sunday’s is very different. Leinster have rivalled Saracens as the best club-team in Europe for the last few years and are the current holders of the Cup. They are masters of possession-rugby, infinitely patient in the build- up, often exasperating opposition supporters, as they go through a sequence of phases, sometimes as many as thirty, with often only a single pass or a pick-and-go in each of them. Of course, they have abundant talent in the backs as well as an enviable reserve of strength. Much depends on the generalship of Johnny Sexton at fly-half. He hasn’t been quite at his best this season, probably on account of a succession of minor injuries; the consequence has been errors of judgement and an apparent loss of confidence. More, however, than anyone else today, Sexton is a man for the big occasion. When he is on form, Leinster, and of course Ireland, usually win. But if his form dips, both club and country can seem at a loss.
Toulouse have been in the doldrums in recent seasons. They have of course a great European record, having won the old Heineken Cup four times. Still the last of these triumphs was in 2010, a rugby generation ago. Maxime Medard is, I think, the only survivor of that team, and I would guess he may be more likely to start on the bench on Sunday. In contrast to Leinster’s well-drilled style, this mostly young Toulouse side has been playing audacious and imaginative rugby. Indeed there have been times this season when they have evoked memories of the days when glorious unpredictability was the characteristic of French rugby and talk of “French Flair” wasn’t couched in tones of nostalgic lament. They have some brilliant young backs: Antoine Dupont at either 9 or 10, Romain Ntamack who won’t be twenty till the First of May, the South African wing Chestin Kolbe, only 5 foot 8 or so in height, but powerful, fast and slippery as a young salmon, and Thomas Ramos at full back.
Moreover recent performances – their quarter-final against Racing 92 and a remarkable Top 14 match against Clermont-Auvergne last Sunday – have shown that they have resolution and resilience as well as a sense of adventure. In both games they came back from the brink of defeat to score winning tries. Indeed that Clermont match sparkled with brilliant scores from both teams. Quite a contrast from their last Heineken final when they beat Dimitri Yachvili’s Biarritz in a match in which no tries were scored. On the other hand there were three Toulouse drop-goals that day, two from David Skrela and one from Florian Fritz.
I confess I would love to see Toulouse win in Dublin, though I suspect that Leinster may be too streetwise and too efficient for them, giving them little chance to feed off mistakes. It would be good for the game to see a side rewarded for daring. These young Toulouse backs play like Dumas’ Musketeers. In time I suppose the likes of Dupont and Ntamack will learn prudence and craftily play the percentages, but at the moment they are a joy to watch.
Moreover, after the disappointing quarter-final exits of Glasgow and Edinburgh, there is Scottish interest in the Toulouse performance, for Richie Gray, recovered from the back injury that kept him out of all Scotland’s matches this season, has been looking much like his formidable old self.
All the same it would be no surprise if the final was to be between Leinster and Saracens, the holders and their predecessors. If Saracens are at their best they will surely beat even the stuffiest of Munster sides, and Leinster these days know how to win when it matters most.