What happens when the EU says no to the Chequers surrender?

Oh dear. The heat is getting everyone over-excited. Waitrose this morning was a nightmare, full of small children in England kit running around and singing that football is coming home, while teams of desperate fathers fought over the last available box of continental lager and exhausted mothers stood next to the chiller section trying not to have a nervous breakdown. Almost no-one is paying any attention to politics what with there being a football match on.

Meanwhile, Paul Mason, the veteran Marxist broadcaster, needs to get some air conditioning installed. (Do Communists believe in air conditioning? It is mainly a capitalist thing.) Hot under the collar of his England shirt, Paul tweeted this morning that Jeremy Corbyn is only inches from power as a result of Theresa May going for a soft Brexit. Er, no.

On the contrary, May and the civil service have – with the support of a group of anti-Brexit Tory MPs for now – comprehensively stitched-up the Brexiteers and moved to a soft Brexit that can probably get through parliament. The Brexiteers in the cabinet have caved, for fear that anything else could collapse the government. Some Tory MPs will make a lot of noise, but what can they do in practical terms? The Brexiteers – remember, and they were warned – propped up May after the general election debacle, for fear of something worse, because they had her where they wanted her, apparently. That was their theory. Now she’s turned them over. Isn’t politics lovely?!

Today, angry pro-Brexit MPs are left with no leader in the cabinet and the vast bulk of the parliamentary party will probably swallow this settlement because the UK not having a position is embarrassing. It’s time to get real, said a senior MP to me the other day.

I do not propose here to write a lengthy essay on what all this means. There is a football match on and Paul Goodman on Conservative Home has crystallised wonderfully the essence of the Chequers compromise solution and its implications.

But several quick observations before I go and throw myself into a lake.

1.) Ironically, with different leadership and an attempt to bring together moderate leavers and remainers, something like this compromise could have been hatched in the months after the referendum and been the basis for a deal that brought people together. The shabby nature of the way the deal was arrived at, the conduct of Remainer Tories who see this as a step on the way back into the EU, and two years of manipulation, and lack of proper preparation and clarity from Brexiteers, mean that even moderate leavers are likely to see this as a pretty shameful outcome.

2.) Some moderate Tories are ecstatic. They see this Chequers agreement as taking back the Tory party, which has been at the mercy of eurosceptics for two decades and more. Again, watch that heat. The violence of the language by Remainer Tories against the Brexiteers in recent days will have felt good, like a purifying vindication and a fight back, but they would be wiser to watch it. Where does all that energy and cold anger – among voters and activists and Tory donors – about an establishment stitch-up go in the months and years ahead? It is an open question. Into a party within a party grouping pushing for a cleaner Brexit? Into an extra-parliamentary force? Or into a successor to UKIP? Again, I stress, it is an open question.

3.) We’ll hear a lot of people on all sides asking whether Brexit is worth doing if this is the deal. Ultra-Remainers like former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg are already suggesting that. Against that cry, will be heard the voices of ministers such as Michael Gove and the few Brexiteers in Number 10 trying to convince annoyed Brexiteers that the point is to get a Brexit – any Brexit, Brexit 1.0 – over the line in March next year. Take what can be got through parliament and past the EU and fix it later, runs the theory.

4.) The key point is this. The EU has not even said “yes” to the proposed deal. The Chequers agreement is only an attempt to get the talks going again. What happens when the European Commission says “no, this won’t work” and the Prime Minister can then only accede to the EU’s demands on freedom of movement and services regulation and much else besides? She has no leverage, not having prepared confidently for a fall back in case of an accidental no deal or insulting terms being offered by the EU.

That leaves Britain most likely heading for a customs union in all but name, full compliance with the single market, free movement, a large bill, and probably ECJ oversight.

As I said at the start. Oh dear.