Hamilton by-election grants Labour a moment of respite
"We have, in this by-election, proven the pollsters wrong, the political commentators wrong and the bookies wrong," beamed Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar today, as Starmer’s party enjoys a moment of unexpected respite.
Labour has secured a narrow victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, winning 8,559 votes, ahead of the SNP on 7,957 and Reform UK on 7,088. Meanwhile, the Tories languished far behind on 1,621 votes.
Thursday’s by-election took place in an area that the SNP has - until today - held since 2011, narrowly clinging onto it at last year’s general election in spite of the Scottish Nationalists’ thumping losses.
Since the 2024 general election, Labour’s polling has fallen off a cliff in Scotland, amid rising discontent at UK government policies such as cuts to pensioners’ winter fuel payments.
Against this backdrop, the chances of Labour candidate, Davy Russell, winning the Hamilton by-election had been played down. The mood music was that the SNP would narrowly retain the seat, with speculation that Russell may even end up finishing third, behind Reform UK’s candidate.
The outcome gives Sarwar a much-needed boost 11 months ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections, renewing his hope of becoming Scotland’s first minister next year. It also suggests that Scotland’s current first minister John Swinney needs to change tactics: presenting the SNP as the only alternative to Reform UK is not a viable strategy.
Farage’s party has reason to be encouraged by the results. While it may have finished third, Reform UK recorded its best ever parliamentary election result in Scotland, securing 26% share of the vote.
“I think what this shows is that, 11 months from the Holyrood elections, the two main parties are a collation of the terrified who are wondering: ‘is Reform going to win the Holyrood elections?’", the party’s deputy leader Richard Tice, declared confidently.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch’s party, is, in the words of polling guru Prof Sir John Curtice, "being had for breakfast, lunch and dinner" by Reform.
Back in 2021, the Tories came third in this seat with around 18% of the vote. Last night, they narrowly held onto their deposit with just 6%.
According to Curtice’s estimations, one in four of the Scottish voters who backed the Conservatives last summer are now backing Reform, while more than one in six former Labour voters in Scotland are now likely to vote Reform.
The dismal by-election results give Badenoch zero cause for celebration, leaving her party once again fighting for relevancy. And yet, even the beleaguered Tories can cheer themselves up by indulging in a spot of Schadenfreude: Reform’s sweeping gains in Scotland are being overshadowed by a fresh bout of in-fighting that once again threatens to undo the party’s rapid rise.
Last night, Reform’s party chairman, Zia Yusuf, announced his resignation, writing on X: “I no longer believe working to get a Reform government elected is a good use of my time”. This came hours after he had labelled it “dumb” for Sarah Pochin, a Reform MP, to suggest at PMQs that the Burka should be banned.
As Iain Martin wrote yesterday, even if most British voters could not identify Yusuf, he was absolutely central to Reform efforts to professionalise the party. His resignation is a serious setback for the insurgent party, providing further evidence that Farage cannot lead a team.
It wasn’t only Yusuf who quit yesterday. He was followed out the door by Nathaniel Fried, who’d been hired just a week earlier to help run Reform’s DOGE-inspired programme.
Speaking of DOGE, the Reform feud is admittedly not half as juicy as the hard-right fight unfolding across the Atlantic. Read Jenny Hjul today for more on Trump and Musk’s epic - yet utterly predictable - bust-up.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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