Gove joins mass exodus of Tory MPs

A new post-war record has been set today, as the number of Tory MPs to announce they are standing down before the fast-approaching general election rose to 77.

The 77th to join the exodus was Housing Secretary, Michael Gove. 

“There comes a moment when you know that it is time to leave”, said the long-time cabinet minister this evening, citing the toll that nearly 20 years as the Conservative MP for Surrey Heath had taken on his personal life. 

This is the biggest Tory exodus since the Second World War – even greater than the 72 who quit in the run-up to Tory Blair’s landslide victory in 1997. 

At the risk of stating the obvious, it doesn’t bode well for Rishi Sunak. 

This afternoon, Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, played down the significance of the fact such a large proportion of the 120 MPs standing down in total come from his own party. 

“There are, by definition, more MPs on the governing side,” he insisted, creating the “illusion” of an imbalance. 

Point taken. Yet it’s inconceivable to think that so many Tory MPs would be throwing in the towel if they weren’t anticipating a crushing defeat. Indeed, it’s no coincidence that Labour MPs represented, by a long way, the highest proportion of those quitting in 2010. 

Craig Mackinlay, the representative for South Thanet, was another Tory MP to confirm today that he will not be contesting the July 4 election. Mackinlay, who lost all four limbs to sepsis, received a standing ovation when he returned to parliament earlier this week after what he described as “eight months of hell”. The 57-year-old previously stated his intention to stand again but, this afternoon, he said that the timing of the election has come too soon for his recovery.

Veteran politicians also standing down include former cabinet ministers Dominic Raab and Ben Wallace, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee Graham Brady, COP26 president Sir Alok Sharma as well as former PM and MP for Maidenhead, Theresa May. Today, May, gave her valedictory speech in the House of Commons, urging her colleagues to “go out there and fight” in this election. 

Another reason why more aren’t hanging on in there to fight, according to Tim Bale, a historian of the Conservative party, is the expectation that it will take more than one election to regain power. 

If you look at the way UK politics has evolved over the last few decades, we have less back-and-forth between parties than in the 1960s and 1970s, says Bale. “We seem now to have a system which puts one party in power for 10 years-plus, and then the other party in power for 10 years-plus or even more than that.”

Which may explain why even some of the youthful 2019 Tory cohort are leaving after just one term, including 30 year-old Dehenna Davison, MP for Bishop Auckland, and 29-year-old Nicola Richards, MP for West Bromwich East. 

The departure of so many of his MPs is a major electoral headache for Sunak. 

Seats where sitting MPs step down have a history of underperforming for their party at the subsequent general election. And MPs who’ve represented a constituency for a long time have an advantage, for fairly self-explanatory reasons. They’re a familiar face, who will have spent years attempting to build up a personal vote among locals who may otherwise be lukewarm on their party.

For a government that already has an electoral mountain to climb, the Tory exodus hands Sunak an unwelcome extra vulnerability. 

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