Coronavirus cases are dropping throughout the UK while estimates for the R number put it at between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting the epidemic is shrinking.
The latest data from the Office for National Statistics appears to demonstrate that lockdown is working to control the virus despite the circulation of more infectious variants.
The ONS numbers relate to the week up to 6 February but show that one in 80 people in England has the virus, one in 75 have it in Northern Ireland, one in 85 in Wales and one in a 150 in Scotland.
London remains stubbornly high with around one in 60 estimated to have had Covid-19 up until that date.
However, the Sage scientists advising the government are still not bullish enough to recommend when lockdown restrictions can be lifted. Indeed, some of the more pessimistic appear to want lockdown to last for the rest of year while others are suggesting that looser rules could be introduced over the next few months if cases continue to fall.
All eyes are now on Prime Minister who has said he will outline a roadmap to exit lockdown the week of 22 February. Getting schools back to some sort of normality remains a priority, with hopes that the target of 8 March can still be met.
But any hopes that other rules will be relaxed anytime soon remain out of bounds. The PM’s spokesman has not ruled out maintaining social distancing, with some experts already predicting another lockdown next autumn.
Meanwhile, the vaccine rollout races ahead. More than 13.5m people in the UK have had at least their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and the ambition to have jabbed around 15 million people in the top four most vulnerable groups by Monday is likely to be met. In some parts of London, and the regions, the NHS has started inviting the over 60s and people with underlying health conditions for their vaccines.
Yet there are some ethnic and religious groups which are still resisting taking up the vaccine even though they are eligible. What is worrying government ministers and health officials is that some of these minorities are being terrified of having the injection because of the scare stories by anti-vax campaigners and conspiracy theories which are going viral in their communities. See more below.
Tulips from Amsterdam
Once upon a time Amsterdam was the global financial hub – the site of the first modern stock exchange. Then came the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and Britain imported not just a Dutch king but also Dutch financial services – and by copying the latter so effectively London eventually eclipsed Amsterdam.
Now, post-Brexit, some are worrying that the clog is on the other foot with Amsterdam overtaking London as Europe’s biggest trading centre in European equities. This was expected: the EU has refused to allow the City full access to its financial markets so EU shares can no longer be traded in London. As a result some City firms have relocated day trading facilities with Amsterdam emerging as the big winner.
But there is no need for the hysteria which we have seen in some of the media. Offering some back of the envelope calculations on Twitter, financial markets expert William Wright suggested that the shift only amounts to the UK losing £50 million in revenue, £5 million in tax, and a few dozen jobs.
London still dwarfs its rivals in the much bigger derivatives and currency markets, and its daily trading volume is about 75 times larger than Amsterdam’s, and five times larger than the EU’s combined total.
As Xavier Rolet, the former boss of the London Stock Exchange, said this week, EU shares going Dutch is a sideshow. It’s when the Europeans come after the euro-denominated interest rate swaps market that we might need another Glorious Revolution.
Bumbling along
She’s beautiful, a billionaire in her own right and 31. Her name – Whitney Wolfe Herd – comes straight out of a movie and so does her story: she is the boss of dating app Bumble which listed on the Nasdaq exchange on Thursday for an astonishing $13 billion.
Leaving Tinder after a nasty sexual harassment claim, Wolfe Herd started Bumble six years ago in Texas with backing from Russian billionaire Andrey Andreev, the founder of European online dating site, Badoo.
Frustrated by dating apps where men make the first move, she turned the tables so that on Bumble it is women who make the first contact with matched male users. In same-sex matches, either person can contact first.
How can Bumble be worth so much after losing $86 million last year on revenues of $376 million? Well, Bumble – and Badoo – are used by 40 million active customers in 150 countries, and have more than 2.4 million paying customers. Before the pandemic, Bumble which is a “fremium” model offering matches for free, made good money from add-on subscriptions and in-app purchases.
Along with most of normal life, dating dried up during lockdown. But Wolfe Herd is confident that singles will make up for lost time once they are free again. Let’s hope so.
As well as being immensely successful, Wolfe Herd also sounds rather nice: her advice to other CEOs is not to take yourself too seriously while another motto is be the “CEO your mother wanted you to marry.” Sadly for many, WWH is already married: to a Texan oil magnate. What a clever cookie. Happy Valentine’s Day on Sunday, BTW.
Tomorrow, look out for a packed edition of Reaction Weekend, including love poetry, cooking, Guy Chatfield on wine, sport, Alastair Stewart’s favourite things, opera, Joan Didion, Saffron Swire on anti-Valentine’s Day, and suits.
Maggie Pagano,
Executive Editor