General Election 2019: It’s tough up north for Labour

A difficult day for Labour – with a major new poll suggesting the party’s support has collapsed in the North East of England. YouGov found that Labour’s lead in its traditional heartland was down to 32% now from 55% in 2017. Support for the Brexit Party was the highest in the entire UK, at 19%.

The same poll recorded another Lib Dem boost – their numbers are up in almost every region in the country. And despite Nigel Farage claiming the Brexit Party would take more votes away from Labour than the Tories, it doesn’t seem to panning out that way so far. As things stand Farage’s outfit is in danger of squandering Johnson’s hopes for a majority. But things can change quickly.

The disastrous polling for Labour in the North East point to the central problem for Corbyn in this election. He’s tried to neutralise the question on Brexit – by promising to renegotiate the deal and put it to a second referendum – but it doesn’t seem to be working. Leavers think he’s too remain, and Remainers think he’s too leave. How can he run a national campaign that keeps Labour candidates in Leave seats, and Labour candidates in Remain seats, in equally good stead? It may be impossible, which is why Labour is trying to shift the focus to other policy areas.

In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon launched the SNP’s campaign this morning. Speaking in Edinburgh, and bidding to eviscerate the Tories North of the border, Sturgeon announced a so-called “NHS Protection Bill.” Sturgeon, it seems, is placing the NHS front and centre in her campaign – straight out of the playbook of Labour. Opposition parties point out that the SNP has presided over the Edinburgh “Sick Kids” hospital scandal. It had been due to open in 2017 and ministers are under-fire on safety concerns.

Scotland will be a key battleground as the SNP pushes to get a mandate for a second independence referendum. The SNP held the North-East Fife seat in 2017 by just two votes – so the Lib Dems are pushing hard for a victory there. It’s a three way way marginal. The Tories were third last time.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland things are looking increasingly tough for the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly in her South Belfast seat. Sinn Féin have stood aside to give space for the SDLP’s Claire Hanna. The seat will be a good case study in how Remain-pacts could shape things in the Northern Ireland.

More details of the televised election debates emerged today too. Corbyn and Johnson will go head to head on the BBC on 6th December, six days before the poll. A week beforehand there will be a seven-way debate with senior figures from all the major parties. It will unlikely be attended by the leaders of the main parties – in the Conservative Party’s case, Home Secretary Priti Patel is being touted as a likely candidate for these kinds of events.

First up however is the Question Time Leaders’ special – hosted by Fiona Bruce in Sheffield – taking place on 22nd November.

The Liberal Democrats are raising issue with their exclusion from the 6th December debate. Swinson said: “After three years of chaos, it is shocking that the Liberal Democrats – the strongest party of Remain – are being denied the opportunity to challenge Johnson and Corbyn on Brexit.”

Senior Tories are so encouraged by the manner in which Swinson’s media performances alienate voters that I’m told they want her on television more, rather than less. Let’s see.

The SNP is, in classic SNP style, feeling shafted as well. The Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, says Scottish voters are being short-changed. Mind you, he says this every day whether there is an election on or not.

Also wanting in on the action is Nigel Farage, who tweeted: “If Boris Johnson really believes that he has a great deal, let’s have a debate on it. Because I have read it – it’s not Brexit and it will not stand up to scrutiny.”