France shoots for the Moon – and beyond
Heard of the AA? No, not that one. And no, not that one either. We’re talking about the AA – the Artemis Accords, the ones named after Apollo’s twin sister, the space accords.
This week France became the 20th country to sign the US-led agreement in which, in a non-binding manner, countries affirm their commitment to “establish a common set of principles to govern the civil exploration and use of outer space.” This is a very good idea. But here’s the problem – how can you have a common set of principles to govern the use of space if two of the big three space powers are not involved? China cannot join because Congress banned NASA from collaborating with Beijing in 2011 and Russia was frozen out after the US Space Force accused it of tracking US spy satellites in a dangerous and “unusual and disturbing manner”. Besides, Moscow says it doesn’t want to sign up to an agreement which is “too US-centric” and akin to “space colonialism”.
This doesn’t mean the Accords are not important, they are, but it does mean that as we accelerate into space travel we are doing so as rival nation states, or blocs of states. While our history of competition for land and resources on Earth does not instil confidence that this is the best approach, the realities of geopolitics, and now astropolitics means that’s the way it is.
Without buy-in from all the major powers we are destined to compete not just for regions on planets, but also the locations of the fuelling stations required to get there, and the bottleneck points along the way. There’s only so much room in low earth orbit in which to fly the satellites which are now vital to our everyday lives and safety. There are only five Lagrange points – areas where the gravitational pulls of the Earth and Moon cancel each other out and so you can keep a spacecraft stationary without needing fuel. China has already parked a satellite at the second, L2, in order to have a clear view of the far side of the Moon. And there are only so many parts of the Moon where we think the “rare earth” materials both nation states and private companies want are.
Hence in the Artemis Accords countries are asked to respect each other’s “safety zones” on the Moon. This sounds like a mispronunciation of “spheres of influence”. Which law would France, Japan, the UK, or other signatories use to tell China or Russia to stay out of their “safety zones”?
Nevertheless, the signatories make up by far the largest bloc of wealthy countries to agree to new guidelines, albeit ones based on the horribly dated Outer Space treaty of 1967. The Accords were launched in 2020 with the goal of putting a man and a woman on the Moon by 2025, then building a research station on its south pole, and a lunar space station above. They also seek to establish a framework for exploring and mining our nearest neighbour, before moving on to Mars.
France joining is a significant moment which strengthens the group. It is the leading European Space power and a major player inside the European Space Agency. The AA members want more countries to join to counter Chinese and Russian ambitions of space leadership and ideas of how space should be governed. At the signing ceremony in Washington D.C. the head of France’s space Agency, Philippe Baptiste, said the Accords “will make it possible to face new challenges and to continue to be counted among the major space powers.”
Most countries can join the AA. Among the members are Colombia, Japan, South Korea, the UAE, Bahrain, Israel, Brazil, Ukraine, and Italy. France was the 7th European nation to sign up to what is an ambitious programme in both its aims and timetable. But China and Russia have their own plans. They say they too will build a research station on the Moon, and it will be open to all interested parties. So far, no takers, but building is scheduled to begin in 2026 and be finished by 2035. It’s envisaged the site will have landing and take-off capabilities for round-trip journeys.
It’s not that Beijing and Moscow don’t want law-based space exploration, more that just as they push back against a world order dominated by the US, so they will not accept a similar space order. Both countries already work with other countries on some issues dealt with in the Accord’s ten principles, e.g. Emergency Assistance, Orbital Debris, and Registration of Space Objects. However, they can sometimes be less forthcoming on others such as Transparency, and Release of Scientific Data.
So, Beijing, Moscow and the Washington-led Artemis group are all aiming for the Moon. The maiden flight of the Artemis 1 rocket around the Moon could happen as early as next month, although there are dozens of windows between now and the end of the year.
Getting a man and woman onto the Moon’s surface by 2025 is uncertain. Surer is the probability of great power rivalry continuing on the way there. And beyond.