European elections: the right turn begins
As voters across the continent head to the polls for the European elections, the first exit poll to emerge is being deemed a precursor to a much-anticipated, bloc-wide result: a sharp right turn.
In the Netherlands, the first EU country to vote for the next European Parliament, exit polls indicate sweeping gains for Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders‘s party.
While Dutch left-wing Labour and Green parties appear to maintain a slight lead, with a combined total of eight out of 31 available seats in the European Parliament, Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom Party was closely trailing them with seven seats — a major turnaround from the zero seats it secured in 2019.
EU elections are unfolding over four days, with results due late Sunday. Around 400 million people across the bloc’s 27 member states are eligible to vote for the next 720 members of European Parliament (MEPs).
A much-cited report by the European Council on Foreign Relations predicts that the combined populist right will win roughly a quarter of the total number of seats in the new parliament.
Major gains are expected for both the ECR group – which includes Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s Law and Justice, as well as for the ID group, which includes both Wilders’ Freedom party in addition to French politician Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
Centre-left and green parties, meanwhile, are forecast to lose seats.
In the past, the European Parliament has been led by a strong majority of centrist parties. What’s driving this major shift to the right?
A backlash at the bloc’s immigration and environmental policies appear to be the two big identifiable factors.
In agricultural communities, resentment has built up at the financial impact of the bloc’s green rules, as evidenced in EU-wide farmer protests unfolding over the past year.
Meanwhile, the likes of 28-year-old sitting MEP Jordan Bardella, of Le Pen’s National Rally, have built up support by pushing for a “double border” policy, which would limit the free movement of migrants within the EU’s open Schengen area by reintroducing systematic checks at national land borders.
In Ireland too, dozens of anti-immigrant candidates are running, amid polls which suggest that almost two-thirds of voters want tougher controls on immigration.
The typical profile of those voting for eurosceptic, anti-immigration candidates is also shifting.
Under-30s seem poised to boost the populist right in the European Parliament. In France, a recent Ipsos survey found that 34 per cent of under-30s plan to vote for Bardella with the next most popular options being leftist party France Unbowed (14%), the center-left Socialist Party (12%) and the Greens (11%).
In the previous EU election in 2019, high youth turnout helped to drive huge gains for the Greens, with climate-focused parties winning a record 74 seats in the European parliament.
This year, they are projected to suffer significant losses, with the number of Green seats forecast to fall to 41. Analysts say many voters across the bloc are finding it increasingly difficult to square prior support for green policies with their growing concerns about security and the cost of living.
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