Europe moves on from its latest test

All is changed, changed utterly. Except that it’s not.

In the UK, the Brexit Party, plus the rump of Ukip, did exactly as forecast, securing some 36.8 per cent of the vote. But the pro-Remain parties combined did equally well, with 20.9 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 12.5 per cent for the Greens and 3.6 per cent for Change UK – ­ a total of 37 per cent.

The country is split. The turnout in these elections was below 40%, and even if you try to apportion the votes of die-hard Tory and Labour voters, who between them won just 23.4 per cent of the vote, and include the impact of the SNP in Scotland, the result of any second EU referendum would be impossible to call.

Nigel Farage is understandably cock-a-hoop about the surge in support for his brand of no-nonsense Brexit. If nothing else, he has proved the value in politics of knowing what you want and going for it at full pelt. He must recognise, however, that at a time of heightened emotion, with membership of the EU the only item on the agenda, he has failed to deliver a majority of the electorate for Leave.

Across Europe, the landscape has been shaken, but the underlying tectonic plates remain, more or less, in place.

As forecast, the established parties bloc, made up of the Centre-Right and Centre-Left suffered a measure of humiliation. The former won 179 seats, down 42; the latter were down by 41, leaving them with 150. The two together will have 329 seats, out of a total, including the UK delegation, of 751.

But, if the 101 seats won by the Liberal coalition are added to those of the centrists of left and right, the European Project total rises to 430, giving it a dominant role in the new Parliament that will convene in Strasbourg on July 2.

And the rise of the Right has been countered by a sharp increase in support for the Greens, which won 70 seats across the 28 member states, Britain included, with 9.3 per cent of the overall vote.

At the opposite end of the political spectrum, the confederal, green-biased, quasi-Communist bloc emerged with 58 seats. As ever, and with no apparent sense of irony, the hard-left will ally with the hard-right on a number of key issues, most obviously states’ rights, making them a loud and buzzy fly in the the integrationist ointment. But, even combining their forces, the anti-Establishment bloc can only hope to tack the Big Three slightly more in the direction of respect for national governments, most of which continue to be controlled by their opponents.

Populist parties in a number of member states did well, much as expected. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassamblement National pipped President Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche, with 23.31 per cent of the vote against 22.41 per cent. Each of the two will have 23 seats in the upcoming parliament. But there is no doubt who has the bragging rights.

How this translates into change on the ground is another matter. Once the votes of moderate Conservatives, Greens and Socialists are added in, the Far Right in France has ended up with less than a quarter of the total. Macron – who over the last six months has been battered by the Gilets-Jaunes protest movement – lives to fight another day. En Marche has consolidated itself as the voice of the Centre and, more than that, the strong arm of the state. Conservatives, represented by Les Républicains, failed to produce a real challenge to the President, while the Socialists were trounced, beaten even by La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), the Marxist clique headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon..

French political movements change their names more often than their socks. But what were once the parties of Charles de Gaulle and François Mitterrand – each of them as arrogant and ruthless as the other – have ended up mere lookers-on as the Jupiter President, who dared to dub his party in its EU context the Renaissance Alliance, slugs it out with the street-fighters of the one-time National Front.

In Germany, the hard-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) increased its vote, but not markedly, winning just 11 seats out of 96. There is an argument to be made that that it has got as far as it’s going, capturing the anti-immigrant resentment that has gripped the east of the country in particular without presenting itself as a credible alternative government. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats did not have a good day out on Sunday, winning 29 seats, down five on 2014. But the Social Democrats, their partners in the so-called Grand coalition government, did worse, securing only 16 seats against 27 last time round.

It was the left-leaning Greens who made the headlines in Germany. They emerged from the hustings with 22 seats, up nine, confirming the view across the country, and indeed across Europe, that climate change more than fears over immigration, will be the number one issue for the EU over the next five years.

In Italy, there were no real surprises. The populist 5-Star Movement won 14 seats (down three), while The League, made up preponderantly of northern-based nationalists, stood still, holding on to its 28 seats. So the League’s Matteo Salvini, deputy prime minister alongside 5-Star’s, remains in poll position, to deliver … what? Salvini may want to change the system in Brussels, making it bow to the member states, but how much shot does he have left in his locker? If he wants to gain respect in Berlin and Paris, he must first show that Italy is ready to deliver on the economy, which thus far – blaming the injustices of the single currency – it has signally failed to do.

But how are the mighty fallen? Forza Italia, the would-be populist party of the octogenarian former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, held on to just six seats, beaten hollow by just about everyone, including the moderate Democratic Left.

Elsewhere, there were some interesting changes. The Freedom Party in the Netherlands was all but wiped out. In Austria, the Right advanced at the expense of the Further-Right, resulting in victory for the country’s young Chancellor, Sebastian Kurz. In Scandinavia, the there was a shift to the conservative right in Sweden, but little substantive change in Denmark and Finland, where the populist, anti-immigrant vote remained between 10 and 14 per cent.

Bucking the EU trend, Spain’s Socialist Party, led by prime minister Pedro Sanchez, came out ahead, winning 20 seats against 12 for the centre-right People’s Party. The two established groupings will be relieved that they held up well as could be expected in the face of both populism and the ongoing crisis over the future of Catalonia. The two combined held off a challenge from the far-right Vox party, which won just three seats, and restricted secessionists and their allies to six seats in the northeast. So can Spain settle down now and concentrate unimpeded on its economic recovery? No. But at least the Government has bought some breathing space.

Poland’s Law and Justice Party was another winner – so no surprise there. In neighbouring Hungary, Viktor Orban once again scooped the pool. The two former East Bloc nations, which along with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, make up the hardline, anti-immigrant Vizegrad group, have been a pain in Brussels’ backside for at least the last five years and it looks as if they will continue to be so. The East-West split in the EU (with Italy migrating in spirit to the East) is, along with Brexit and climate change, one of the three ongoing crises that will have to be addressed as matters of urgency not only by the new Parliament, but by the new European Commission.

Speaking of which … the next big choices facing the EU are who to appoint/elect as the new presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament. Since 1999, all three jobs have been shoo-ins for the nominees of either the European Peoples Party, representing the centre-right, or the Social Democrats, from the soft-left.

This time it will be a little different. The two biggest blocs have been reduced in strength, both nationally and at the European level. At the same time, the Greens, Liberals and Populists have grown. For Emmanuel Macron, who has lived through a dark six months, the light at the end of the tunnel may be that he will be the kingmaker in the negotiations that will shortly get under way. Macron wants to put Brexit into the rear mirror as quickly as possible. He would also like to see his choice – possibly Michel Barnier, possibly Christine Lagarde, possibly someone else entirely – installed as boss of the Berlaymont. He may not get his way, but he will not walk away empty-handed either.

Whatever happens in Britain over the next few months, whether it be an advance towards no deal or a second referendum, the EU looks close to the point of walking away from the shambles that is Brexit. There is much else to resolved, different crises to be addressed, and the incoming powers-that-be in Brussels (little altered from what they are today) will not spend the next 12 months looking over their shoulder towards the chaos in Westminster.

The European Union is wounded. It has lost its swagger. But at least some of the uncertainties of recent months are out of the way. The populists have advanced. But so have the Greens and the Liberals. There remains everything to play for.

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