EU top jobs: the old order endures – for now
In the end, it was the appointment that showed that while everything changes, deep-down everything stays the same. Following three days of hard bargaining by the EU’s heads of government in Brussels, the new President-designate of the European Commission is the German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen , a Brussels brat, born and raised in the shadow of the Berlaymont, who believes not only in the establishment of a joint European Army but in the creation, long-term, of a United States of Europe.
She is the first woman in the EU’s 62-year history to head the Brussels executive and the first German since Walter Hallstein, whose term of office ended as long ago as 1967.
If anything could be calculated to confirm Brexiteers in their view that the new Europe is not for them, the choice of Von der Leyen – a passionate believer in Ever Closer Union – to head the Commission was probably it. The good news is that the German – who once described Brexit as “a burst bubble of hollow promises” – will not be in place for what we are assured will be the final days of Britain’s EU membership. Instead, it will be the old familiar faces of Jean-Claude Junker, Donald Tusk and Michel Barnier who look on as we bid our not-so-fond goodbyes.
As a quid pro quo for Von der Leyen, the next head of the European Central Bank is slated to be Christine Lagarde, currently head of the International Monetary Fund and an ally of French President Emmanuel Macron. Lagarde said last night that she was honoured by her nomination and had decided to take leave of absence from the IMF during the confirmation process. She will take over from Mario Draghi, of Italy, widely credited with saving the euro after the 2008 financial crisis.
Berlin and Paris, at loggerheads in recent days over their choice of a successor to Juncker at the Commission, can now say they have got more or less what they needed, even if it is not exactly what they wanted. Confounding the doubters, the Old Order has once more stumbled over the finishing line. Populist rebels, made up of the four Vizegrad states, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, backed by Italy, had threatened to turn the system upside down unless they got a less integrationist leadership in Brussels, but in the end they left empty-handed. Talk that the new EU High Representative, or foreign minister, would be the Slovak Maros Sefcovic came to nothing and the role has fallen instead to Josep Borrell, the 72-year-old Spanish foreign minister, a Socialist and former President of the Strasbourg Parliament.
As for the presidency of the Council, often compared to the task of herding cats, it looks as if Belgium’s acting prime minister, the liberal francophone Charles Michel, will be handed the conch, making him, as Tusk’s successor, the man responsible for setting the agenda for summits and keeping international and regional rivalries from degenerating into the diplomatic equivalent of open war.
Much will be made in the coming weeks of the comment by Von der Leyen, made in 2015, to the effect that a common EU army, as part of a United States of Europe, is something she would like to see become a reality during the lifetimes of her children or grandchildren. In addition, the fact that during her six years in charge of German defence she managed to hold spending down below the two per cent of GDP demanded by President Donald Trump is certain to provoke a response in Washington. Is Brussels, Trump will want to know, more willing to imagine a strong Europe than a strong Nato?
The fact that Von der Leyen is a woman is, however, sure to be welcomed. This particular leap forward has been a long time coming. With Lagarde in charge of the single currency and the financial system, including interest rates, a powerful female version of the old Franco-German diumverate is seen as almost inevitable.
The new Commission head, who will not take up her post until November 1, one day after Britain is scheduled to leave the EU, is 60-years-old. She was born in Brussels in 1958, the daughter of a senior Commission official who later became president of the German state of Lower Saxony and a candidate for the Chancellorship. Fluent in French as well as German, and with excellent English, she studied economics at the universities of Göttingen and Münster, as well as at the LSE in London, afterwards switching to medicine in Hanover and qualifying as a physician. She is married to a well-known professor of medicine and somehow, in the middle of a crowded schedule, found time to have seven children.
Her political career, which began in Hanover, blossomed with the arrival in power of Angela Merkel, who appointed her successively minister for the family, minister of labour and defence secretary. There were rumours that she might rise further, perhaps even to the top job, taking over from the ailing Merkel, but in the end, with the Chancellor’s original candidate for the Commission post, Manfred Weber, running into concerted opposition, not least from Macron, Berlin successfully switched to a hitherto unexpected Plan B.
All four of the latest appointments were filled with a view to satisfying the competing demands of the centre-right/liberal/centre-left political families, the amour propre of France and Germany – aka Merkel and Macron – and the need to throw a bone to the South, in this instance, Spain. The one exception to the something-for-everybody approach – a top job for the East Bloc – is the only requirement not so far to have been met, which will not go down well in Warsaw, Budapest, Bratislava or Prague. The one opportunity left to recitify the omission will come with the election by MEPs of a new President of the European Parliament to replace Italy’s Antonio Tajani. Watch this space.
The Commission, Central Bank and High Representative positions are four-year appointments, with a starting date of November 1. The Council presidency, which lasts for two-and-a-half years, renewable for a second term, takes effect in December. Each of the four nominees must now be confirmed by the newly re-elected Parliament, which met for the first time yesterday in the midst of a demonstration by Catalans demanding that their independence candidates be permitted to take their seats and a protest by Brexit Party MEPs, led by Nigel Farage, in which the the No-Deal delegation turned their backs on proceedings during a recital of the European anthem, Ode to Joy. The new president of the parliament should be chosen today in Strasbourg and there is no guarantee that MEPs will rubber stamp the choices made by heads of government. Some members, most obviously from Italy and the Vizegrad, will wish to make their resentments and frustration plain. But with mayhem the alternative, it is likely that a series of deals, complete with sweeteners, will unfold over the coming days.
For Juncker and Tusk in particular, the changing of the guard will scarcely be angst-free. They are painfully aware that the last four years have been terrible for the reputation of EU, shocked as it was by Brexit, traumatised by terrorism, plagued by mass-immigration and under mounting and remorseless pressure from populism. As if it wasn’t bad enough that the European economy was stuttering, those in charge have had to confront a prolonged existential crisis. But for the outgoing keepers of the watch, their time of trial is almost ended. For Ursula Von der Leyen, it is only just beginning.
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