EU leaders meet seeking to avoid no deal Brexit – good luck with that

EU leaders are meeting today to discuss the length of extension to Article 50 as a no deal Brexit looks ever more likely.

Theresa May sent a letter to Donald Tusk yesterday requesting an extension to the 30th June, and indicated her intention to bring her deal back to the House for a third time.

However, Tusk said that the EU is not really in a position to offer such an extension. The offers on the table are either a short extension to March 22nd, thereby precluding the UK from participating in the upcoming European elections; or a longer extension of up to or over a year, allowing for an entire strategy rethink. But Tusk indicated that a short extension would only be offered on the condition that May’s deal were to pass a parliament vote next week.

On arriving at the Commission, May echoed sentiments from her statement last night: “This delay is a matter of personal regret to me. But a short extension would give parliament the time to make a final choice that delivers on the result of the referendum.”

President Macron, throwing a spanner into the works, yesterday indicated that France might veto granting an extension. All 27 EU member states must unanimously agree to a Brexit delay. This seemed to spook Leo Varadkar, who all but asked the Commission to give Britain a break, grant an extension, and let them get their house in order. Despite the dramatic report yesterday, it appears Macron has slightly climbed down. He said that the EU would agree an extension in parliament next week if May’s deal were to succeed – directly echoing Tusk’s commitment yesterday.

The biggest question facing both sides now is what May will do if her vote fails in parliament again next week. It seems that her comments yesterday – that it would be “unacceptable” to her as prime minister to delay Brexit beyond 30th June – have been interpreted in two ways. Some think she has indicated that if only a long extension is on offer then she will resign as prime minister. Others see that as a commitment to overseeing a no deal Brexit after either a short extension, or perhaps even on the 29th March. The latter is looking increasingly likely.

Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn has also been attending a series of meetings at the European Commission. He technically refused to rule out a total revocation of Article 50, but it is unlikely Labour would lean towards that policy as Corbyn has repeatedly insisted his commitment to leaving the EU. He is historically more of a eurosceptic than May, after all. The Labour position right now seems to be at least a strong rhetorical commitment to avoid a no deal exit.

Of course, Corbyn has one very easy route to preventing a no deal exit next week. At the last minute Corbyn could whip his MPs to support May’s deal, although considering his staunch aversion to May’s deal since the very day it was procured this is unlikely. Alternatively, an amendment to May’s deal which advocates for a second referendum or a softened form of Brexit could fail, leaving the options facing the party two fold; vote for May’s deal or vote against and essentially endorse a no deal exit. In this instance there could be a last minute decision to whip his MPs to support (unlikely), offer a free vote (also unlikely), or a call for his MPs to abstain.

The above is of course dependent on a confluence of highly up in the air factors. But the takeaway is that it is not just May or the ERG who can prevent a no deal Brexit. Corbyn has the power to do so too.