End of lockdown glimpsed

When will lockdown end?

Professor Chris Whitty and his colleagues believe that we are now past the peak of infections. ICUs are still struggling, but pressure seems to be easing. Average weekly occupancy in critical care units is now showing its first sustained falls since early December. The trend is more likely to be a result of lockdown than the vaccine rollout which should start to make a difference over the next few weeks.

The emphasis on case numbers at last night’s briefing has set alarm bells ringing for some lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs, renewing accusations of Covid mission-creep – the desire to eliminate the disease rather than simply manage it. A source close to Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, said that he was concerned that the “goalposts are moving” and was adamant that this must be the final lockdown.

Tory backbenchers make the reasonable point that case numbers do matter, but only to the extent that they lead to hospitalisations and deaths. While those who cannot or will not be vaccinated must be taken into account, the ultimate metric for whether to ease restrictions should be pressure on the NHS.

Tory backbenchers are pressing for the 8 March date for schools reopening to be brought forward, citing plans in Scotland and Wales to bring primary school kids back to the classroom immediately after the half term break.

Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, hinted today that once over-50s are vaccinated, “a significant return to normality” would be possible, although he refused to be drawn on a date.

A quick number crunch suggests that the justification for lockdown would need to shift in a big way if restrictions are to remain beyond March and certainly beyond April.

If the rollout continues at the current pace of around 400,000 jabs a day, then the top four most vulnerable groups in England – which account for 88 per cent of Covid deaths and 55 per cent of hospitalisations – should have all had a first dose by the middle of this month.

All 32 million people in the nine priority groups – which account for 99 per cent of Covid deaths and 80 per cent of hospitalisations – should have been jabbed by the end of March. By the middle of May, the top four groups could have received both jabs and groups five to nine one jab.

Vaccine uptake is thought to be at an impressive 85 per cent, which surpasses most estimates of the threshold required for herd immunity – when widespread resistance causes the disease to peter out. Warmer spring weather will also help. The metrics are all pointing in the right direction.

Bullish Bank 

The Bank of England is bullish about the UK’s growth prospects, predicting a “rapid recovery” later in the year, with the success of the vaccine rollout meaning a “material recovery in household spending.” An economic rebound is expected in the spring and growth of 5 per cent over the year.

The first quarter will be a “tough few months”, however, with GDP expected to shrink by 4.2 per cent. This would be apocalyptic by normal standards – worse than anything seen in the 2008 financial crash, or indeed, in the 70 years before that – but it’s piddling compared to the 20 per cent fall last spring.

The rebound will very much depend on households’ willingness to splash out as restrictions ease.

Many are in no position to do so. Millions of workers remain on the government’s furlough scheme and unemployment is still projected to rise to 7.8 per cent later this year as the furlough scheme winds down.

Yet plenty of higher earners, working from home, have saved during the pandemic. The report estimates that households stashed away £125bn more last year than they usually would have done. There’s a decent chance that big savers will raid the coffers and fuel a summer spending boom.

GOP backs MTG

Marjorie Taylor Greene thinks that Obama is a Muslim, school shootings were faked, and that a Rothschilds-owned “space laser” started wildfires in California. She is also a Republican Congresswoman. Republican Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell, has called her a “cancer” in the party.

But his colleagues in the House disagree. In a vote today organised by the Democrats who want to kick her off a number of committees, Republican congresspeople voted against disciplining Greene. Half even gave her a standing ovation after she apologised for her past remarks which included calling for the execution of prominent Democrats and questioning if a plane really hit the Pentagon on 9/11.

Intriguingly, at the same meeting Republicans also voted against removing Liz Cheney from the party by a big majority – despite calls for her head after she voted to impeach Donald Trump. Republicans are trying to keep centrists and extremist kooks in the party. How long they can keep up this balancing act remains to be seen.

Mattie Brignal,
News Editor