Emmanuel Macron’s enemies are queuing up for revenge

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the polling booth. One week on from Emmanuel Macron’s re-election as President, the Left in France, led by the helmeted Ultras and anarchists, went on the rampage on Sunday, smashing the front windows of banks, insurance offices and estate agents and ripping down traffic signs. A total of 54 demonstrators were arrested in Paris alone and eight police officers were injured. 

So what did Jean-Luc Mélenchon, at the head of France Insoumise (France Unbowed), who took nearly 22 per cent of the vote in the first round of the elections, have to say about the latest insurrection? Did he urge restraint and respect for the democratic process? No, he did not. Instead, he called for the “struggle” to continue, telling protesters, including trade unionists and eco-warriors, that nothing good was ever freely given to the workers and that power had to be seized from the grasp of the “ruling class”. 

It should be said at once that no one, least of all the once and future President, was surprised by the latest spate of manifs, which are par for the course in France whatever the political weather. For one thing, it was May Day, which for the far Left is the equivalent of the opening day of the football season. For another, he had been pelted with rotten tomatoes days earlier during his first post-election appearance, in a Paris suburb. 

As the demonstrations got underway and out of hand in Paris, Macron and his wife Brigitte attended a traditional flower show in the capital at which, out of custom, they were presented with bouquets of lily-of-the valley. It was left to the no-nonsense interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, to condemn the “unacceptable violence” of the casseurs, or “thugs”. 

Darmanin is a central figure in the President’s ideological entourage, who, following the resignation of Jean Castex (appointed mainly to oversee the handling of the Covid crisis), could emerge as prime minister-in-waiting pending the results of next month’s parliamentary elections. Others in the running include the Labour Minister Élisabeth Borne – who would be only the second woman to get the job – the thrusting young agriculture minister Julien Denormandie, and, at a stretch, the current government spokesman Gabriel Attal. 

Ordinarily, the office of prime minister is at the discretion of the President, but from 20 June, if a united pan-Socialist front storms back in the parliamentaries, Mélenchon could, in theory, find himself in pole position as leader of the largest bloc in the National Assembly.  

This dream scenario is unlikely to happen. The Socialist Party, all but annihilated in the presidentials, is in deep trauma, barely registering a pulse. Its candidate, Anne Hildago, remains mayor of Paris, but all her authority is gone. To play its part, the party of François Mitterrand, which occupied the Élysée as recently as the spring of 2017, would have to come back from its latest near-death experience, in harness not only with the Communards of France Insuoumise, but with the Communists and the Greens. That said, Mélenchon is an able rabble-rouser and there is a lot of pent-up anger in France that needs to find release. A leftist majority, however contrived, would impose an extreme version of cohabitation, in which two diametrically opposed sides would be bound to each other by nothing more than arithmetic. The resulting constitutional confusion would lead to legislative chaos and the near certainty of a fresh round of elections. 

Much of the entertainment along the way would come from the attitude towards the Left, once in a position of power, of Marine Le Pen, the far-Right leader, who until last Sunday had hoped that she, not Macron, would be given the keys to the Élysée Palace. Le Pen and Mélenchon, though hailing from opposite ends of the spectrum, are both populists, united in their detestation of the founder of En Marche, whom they regard as an élitist with an ultimate ambition to lead Europe, not France. 

Le Pen, whose inevitable conceit is that she, rather than Mélenchon, should be the one to set up house in the Matignon (official residence of French prime ministers), has called on everyone on the French Right, including the once-powerful Republicans, to fall in behind her as the one to dethrone, or at least discomfit, Macron. It would be her perfect revenge for losing to him twice in the race for the top job. 

But while the players of fantasy football are caught up in their dreams, Macron is busy planning his second administration. His strategy for the parliamentary elections, beyond promising to bring down inflation and to assist those on the lowest incomes, will be to unveil a green-tinged shift to the centre-left (hopefully bringing in Old School Socialist voters) alongside an enduring commitment to pension reform and an increase in the state retirement age (aimed at consolidating support from the centre-right). 

It may not be politics to stir the blood, but with the war in Ukraine expected to continue for at least the next six months, and possibly a lot longer, an outward-facing administration is unavoidable, with an emphasis on the EU, NATO and relations with the US and UK. 

En Marche could lose its majority in June. The landslide of 2017 was always a one-off. The chances are, however, that it will remain the largest party or, in ongoing coalition with the moderate Movement for Democratic Change, in command of the largest bloc of votes. Either way, Macron would be free to pick and choose his own cabinet, selecting one or two ministers from the Republicans, perhaps even one from the Greens, with the far-left and extreme-right reduced to quarreling among themselves.

The path ahead is not without risk. The President cannot afford to be too cocky – the trait in his character most deplored by voters. Like Tony Blair of old, he sees himself as the undisputed master of the centre-ground and he needs to be careful not to get ahead of himself. 

Will Mélenchon and Le Pen combine to bring his regal progress to an abrupt halt? They might. French voters, having lived through Covid, are capricious and many will be keen to revenge themselves on the man they deem responsible for two years of lockdown followed by rising prices in the shops and soaraway energy bills. Will the Republicans and mainstream Socialists, having lost their deposits last time out, manage to pick themselves up from the floor in time to trouble the scorers? Possibly. But more likely, Macron will power on, bruised but unbloodied, in which event, and indeed whatever happens, most of the shocks ahead will be economic and geopolitical in nature. Après le déluge… lui.