A Democrat majority in the House suits Trump just fine

“It’s a tremendous success,” tweeted the President as the results came in.

Well, Donald, it’s certainly not the midterm disaster widely predicted when you were elected two years ago. In fact, in terms of your own survival and chances of being effectively unopposed in the 2020 Republican primaries, these midterms are a blinder. But, forget a legislative agenda for your last two years in office and expect the volume to be turned up on your, er… indiscretions. Probably suits you fine.

Trump thrives on attacking his enemies. And the odds are on a self-deluded Democrat majority in the House of Representatives embarking on a politically correct agenda. Watch out for Elizabeth Warren’s unsmiling brand of socialist hype gaining more traction. That will scare the voters in the 2020 poll.

And, tune in to the freak show of Nancy Pelosi trying to cling on desperately to her likely position as House Speaker. Keep that Twitter finger working, Donald! Plenty of material for your one-liner put downs there.

A split nation gets a split Congress. These midterms look like any other old midterms, actually, better for the President than is usual. “Incumbents suffer reverse” is hardly a cataclysmic “hold the front page” headline. President Obama’s first mid terms (2010) saw 63 Democrat losses. This week the Republicans were on course to lose 23. They increased their majority in the Senate to 6, gaining 4.  In 2010 the Democrats lost 6 Senate seats.

Is the country irrevocably “split” as widely suggested?

By age: Democrats won the young vote, that is 61% of voters aged 18 to 29 (compared to 55% in 2016). Republicans won in only one age cohort, of voters aged 65 and older, and then by a single percentage point, 49% to 48% (53% to 45% in 2016).

By sex (Oops! Sorry – “gender gap”): Women favoured Democrats over Republicans by 56% to 38%, compared to 54% to 42% in the 2016 presidential ballot. Men favoured Republicans over Democrats by 49% to 46% this time (it was 53% to 41% in 2016). So, there was slippage towards the Democrats, but no seismic shift.

By geography: no surprises here. The heavily populated coastal liberal states are as sharply divided from the less densely populated, rural, flyover states as ever. But the Electoral College system, which gave Mr Trump the presidency, although he did not win a plurality of the popular vote, could do so again in 2020. For those Democrats who cry “foul”, your founding fathers created the system precisely to ensure that big states couldn’t gang up on little ones.

None of these indicators is widely out of the ranges experienced in previous elections. The ethnic voting figures have shifted by the same small numbers. The social fabric of the USA is hardly being rent in twain.

These elections were “All about the Donald”. “It’s the President, stupid” – to pilfer a famous Clinton aperçu. And he chose to force the referendum on himself.

It is remarkable that Mr. Trump, a political parvenu in 2016, only grudgingly accepted by many in the Grand Old Party as an outsider, should have in two short years rebranded himself “Republican” and, in turn, made reluctant Republicans “Trumpists”.

The President settles old scores by forgetting about them. “Lyin’ Ted” (re-elected Texas Senator, Ted Cruz) has been transmogrified into “Beautiful Ted”. Flip back through campaign news footage. It’s dominated by the President in his now trade mark long, mafia boss black, cashmere coat and Republican red tie, barnstorming critical territory, supporting “his” candidates – many of whom would have run a mile from him in 2016 if they had had the chance.

One thing from these midterms is crystal clear. Those who think Trump will lose interest, give up, pine for more golf and abandon the field in 2020 are plain dead wrong. Maybe he is fired up by hubris – but he’s fired up. And Melania may just have to hold her glum composure for six more years.

Here’s a breakfast exchange at the Cleveland GOP convention in July 2016 with a veteran party stalwart: “I’ve been here three days and no-one in the Ohio delegation has mentioned the “Trump” word,” says I. Reply: “We don’t like him, but he’s the candidate. We’ll probably work with his campaign in the fall”, says stalwart. Hardly enthusiastic.

How far they have travelled in two short years. Said party stalwarts have signed up to a Republican version of the “Ulysses Contract” – named for the hero Odysseus, who had his men tie him to the mast so he could hear Siren voices but not jump in the sea. In this 21st century rehash President Trump is bound to the mast of the good ship “Republican” while his GOP crew has stuffed its ears with wax to drown out their President’s Tweets. So, on they sail together – through the mid term straits of Scylla and Charybdis (think Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders) and – like Ulysses – they survive, but with a considerable number of the crew eaten (23 House seats on the menu).

No wonder President Trump immediately hailed the day a success – oh, to have been listening in on that congratulatory call to Nancy Pelosi – and for him it was. He thrives on destroying enemies and now the Democrat controlled House is his “enemy”, no longer an uneasy “friend”.

Paul Ryan (Republican now former Leader of the House) had a series of bruising running battles with President Trump, who turned making supportive compliments on Mr Ryan’s ability to steer his agenda through gritted teeth into an art form.

The Senate is now more firmly under GOP control, so impeachment is an even more distant prospect than it ever was. Even the uber-aggressive Pelosi recognises that unsuccessful impeachments are a voter turn off. The 1998 Clinton debacle is the precedent.

Robert Mueller’s investigation will likely be wrapped up quickly now and unless there is some smoking gun implicating the President directly in Russian election interference expect there to be a fuss, a few other minor heads on the block for offences unrelated to Mr. Mueller’s original brief – tax evasion, corruption, dodgy donations, the “business as usual” of American politics. “Nothing to see here. Move on”.

Further down the road, in 2020 re-districting will be underway, so the gubernatorial races – 36 in play – were the sleeping giants in these midterms. These have not played out as a “tremendous success” for Republicans. Core Midwest territory – Kansas, Illinois and Michigan – has been lost with some consolation in winning Florida, the most tightly battled contest.

Republicans and Democrats have traditionally used incumbency and dealt with awkward demographic voting trends by overt gerrymandering – a.k.a. “rezoning” for polite folk. I advise spending an idle hour – perhaps while “Strictly Come Dancing” is on the box – looking at maps of congressional districts.

They come in all shapes – barbells, snakes, horseshoes, semi-circles. The 114th Congressional District looks like John Hanning Speke’s 1858 map revealing the source of the River Nile.

But, don’t expect virtuous reform at the hands of new Democrat governors. Expect instead “now it’s our turn” rezoning to reinforce incumbency.

“Who Will Heal This Divided Country”? Well, it’s the question du jour – in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, the EU (not a country quite yet), and, yes the USA.

Wagging the finger at the US predicament is not seemly from this side of the Atlantic. We are all in the same sort of divided boat, Brexit and all. After these mid term elections it looks like our US friends will be sailing under Captain Trump for some time yet. He’s in it for the long haul.