Defence secretary jets to NATO for crisis talks

Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, is heading to Brussels tomorrow for an urgent meeting with Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, after Boris Johnson warned that Vladimir Putin could be preparing a “lightning war” on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

Wallace is also in talks with his Russian counterpart about a possible meeting in Moscow to discuss mutual security concerns. According to a senior defence source: “The Secretary of State has been clear that he will explore all avenues to achieve stability and a resolution to the Ukraine crisis. We are in communication with the Russian government.”

As fears grow that Europe could be spiralling towards its worst security crisis in decades, the West is determined to put on a united front. On Monday night, leaders of the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and NATO held crisis talks to decide on a common strategy against Russian aggression. They concluded the meeting by warning of “an unprecedented packet of sanctions” against the Kremlin if it pushes ahead with the feared incursion. 

What sort of help have Western allies offered Ukraine so far? 

Last weekend, 90 tonnes of US “lethal aid”, including ammunition for “front-line defenders”, arrived in Ukraine, and Britain has agreed to supply Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence. Wallace has also told MPs that a small team of British troops will be sent to Ukraine to provide military training. Other European countries, including Germany, have offered to provide medical aid.

All this support will help. However, Kiev’s ultimate demand is yet to be met: NATO membership. “We want to be in NATO… we are facing the biggest army in Europe by ourselves,” the Ukrainian ambassador  to the UK said last week. 

Without a NATO membership, it is “extremely unlikely” that No 10 would actually send British combat troops to defend Ukraine, Dominic Raab has confirmed. Similarly, the Pentagon said today that 8,500 combat-ready US troops are on alert to deploy to Ukraine at short notice, but only if the NATO military alliance decides to activate an emergency response unit. 

Moscow’s intentions remain unclear. Despite the 125,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, Putin is still denying any plans of an invasion. 

The Russian president has also accused the Foreign Office of “spreading nonsense”, after British officials accused Moscow of plotting to install a puppet leader to rule over Ukraine in the wake of an incursion, and even went so far as to name the likely candidate: Yevhen Murayev, a pro-Moscow former Ukrainian MP. 

Sir Alex Younger, former chief of MI6, says he expects Putin “is playing poker rather than chess.” In other words, “he’s creating options for himself. But he may not have decided what he’s actually going to do.”

But the US and UK are pressing ahead with safety precautions nonetheless. While no specific threats are thought to have been made to British diplomats, the UK has already ordered half of its staff working in the Kiev embassy to return to the UK, leaving just 30 British diplomats – including the ambassador – behind in Ukraine. And the US has ordered relatives of its embassy staff to leave Kiev, warning them an invasion could come “at any time”. The EU has taken a more relaxed approach, with all embassy staff staying in place, and the foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, insisting he would not “dramatise” the tensions. 

Fears that Europe might be on the brink of war had sent shivers through financial markets on Monday, leading to some of the biggest stock market falls since June 2020 at the height of the pandemic. Prices recovered slightly today, with the FTSE 100 index climbing back up 1% to close at 7,371.46 while the Eurostoxx 50 clawed back some of its losses to finish at 4,084.58. But in the US, markets fell again today ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting which may lead to tightening of monetary policy and worries that tech stocks are under pressure. And the Vix index – known as the fear index, as it measures the volatility of future prices – was back up at 35.7, way above its average of 20.