Covid-19 cases nosedive
Covid-19 deaths across the UK are falling dramatically.
According to the latest ONS data, there were 4,474 Covid deaths in the week up to 19 February, down a quarter on the week before. Deaths among the over 75s have halved every week for the past few weeks. And the number of over 80s being sent to intensive care each day is now in the single figures.
Interestingly, the number of non-Covid deaths in England and Wales is also falling, so much so that by the end of March there’s a good chance that deaths from all causes, including Covid, could be lower than the five-year average for the time of year. The decline is mostly due to a record low number of flu deaths. Lockdown has brought the flu infection rate right down and many of those who would have died of flu have already died from Covid instead.
Immunity levels are also increasing. In England, one in four people now have antibodies against Covid. In Wales and Northern Ireland, it’s one in six and in Scotland, one in eight. This doesn’t include hospitals and care homes where the proportion will be even higher. Separate data shows that 90 per cent of the over 85s have antibodies, meaning they should have some protection from the virus.
The stats are moving relentlessly in the right direction and show no sign of letting up. That vaccines are working, and working well, is now obvious. The pace of progress will start to make Boris Johnson’s cautious unlocking seem recklessly slow over the coming weeks. Backbench accusations that the PM is being ruled by dates, not data will rise to ear-splitting volumes.
Could all this mean an early unlocking?
Short answer: no. Johnson has little to gain by moving the dates forward, and everything to lose if an early lifting of restrictions goes wrong. He’ll have more than one eye on his legacy – Boris, vaccine maestro – and will hope that extra weeks of needless restrictions will be forgotten in Britain’s post-lockdown summer fiesta. If the stats continue on current trends, there will almost certainly be one.
EU gotta be joking
The EU’s united front on vaccines is splintering in the face of delays and shortfalls hampering the rollout. Poland is in talks to buy China’s Sinopharm jab, Slovakia has taken delivery of two million doses of Russia’s Sputnik vaccine and Hungary has already started rolling out both. Incredibly, given the bloc’s reluctance to embrace the AstraZeneca vaccine, neither the Russia or China jab has yet been approved by the European Medicines Agency.
Austria and Denmark have now forged a “vaccine alliance” with Israel with plans to manufacture a second generation of mRNA vaccines domestically. Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, said it would allow his country to “no longer rely on the EU in the future”.
Meanwhile, France has begun a humiliating U-turn on the AstraZenaca vaccine. Having initially deemed the jab to only be suitable for the under-65s – it would be “quasi-ineffective” otherwise, according to President Macron – the vaccine will now be made available to those aged 65-74. Over 75s will still only receive a Pfizer or Moderna shot.
The damage has already been done. Uptake of the AZ vaccine in France is just 24 per cent.
Evidence implicates Sturgeon
Witness statements published this evening contradict one of Nicola Sturgeon’s key claims in the scandal that threatens to engulf her leadership.
Former SNP spindoctor Kevin Pringle, and lawyer and former MSP Duncan Hamilton, have written to the Holyrood inquiry. They corroborate Alex Salmond’s assertion that the identity of a complainer was revealed at a meeting in March 2018.
Sturgeon goes in front of the committee tomorrow. The Tories have lodged a motion of no confidence in Sturgeon, but the other opposition parties have declined to join – yet, until they have heard Sturgeon’s evidence.
Today, the Lord Advocate (Scotland’s senior law officer who oversees the public prosecutor) defended his conduct, giving evidence to the Holyrood committee of inquiry that is trying to find out why and how the Scottish government mishandled an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment. Salmond was acquitted in a later criminal trial.
Claims the Crown Office’s decision to prosecute Alex Salmond was politically motivated were “baseless”, the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe QC, told MSPs.
The Scottish government was today also forced to issue (some of) the legal advice it received, and ignored, in the Autumn of 2018. Salmond was seeking a judicial review over the process used to investigate the former First Minister. The government’s case was not very convincing; its lawyers expressed grave concerns. Yet Sturgeon and officials pressed ahead. The case collapsed, Salmond was vindicated and the resulting bill for Salmond’s costs hit the taxpayer for more than £500,000.
Look out for more on Reaction later this evening.
Mattie Brignal,
News Editor