Could the Afghan crisis mean the end of NATO?
When NATO was founded in 1949, the principles of solidarity and cooperation were at the heart of its mission. This shared identity was strengthened in the wake of 9/11, when NATO invoked Article 5 of its charter for the first and only time – pledging to respond to the attack on the US as if it was an attack on all member nations.
Almost 20 years later, the chaos prompted by Joe Biden’s unilateral decision to withdraw US troops from the alliance’s longest-running mission shows just how fragmented NATO has become.
After the turbulent years of the Trump presidency, NATO allies had hoped that Biden would restore greater levels of co-operation and discussion within the alliance. But they were dismayed when he forced their hands by upholding his predecessor’s decision to withdraw US troops.
Meeting with Biden in May, European leaders reportedly advised against a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan but were powerless to reverse his decision. Once the US announced plans to remove its soldiers, NATO allies did the same.
On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “We must realise that when it comes to the NATO mission to Afghanistan, it was not possible to have an independent role for Germany or the European forces… We always said that we are basically dependent on the decisions of the US government.”
Lord Peter Ricketts, the UK’s former national security adviser, put it more bluntly: “It looks like NATO has been completely overtaken by American unilateral decisions.”
But no matter where EU member states want to place the blame, their decision to follow in the US’ footsteps and the subsequent failure to coordinate a contingency plan for evacuating local allies led to scenes of chaos at Kabul airport and chipped away at NATO’s credibility.
This very public unravelling was made worse by the fact that while German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson conferred with each other during the unfolding of the crisis, Biden did not pick up the phone to any of his foreign counterparts until Tuesday.
Lord Mark Sedwill, who served as a former ambassador and senior Nato representative to Afghanistan, suggested this week that – going forward – the alliance should focus its efforts on rebuilding the practical capabilities to intervene when necessary, “avoiding the over-reach and impatience which proved fatal to the Afghan campaign”.
But will the alliance be able to hold together after an event that has been described as “the greatest debacle that NATO has experienced since its foundation”?
It remains to be seen whether EU counterparts will continue to trust Biden after his disregard of the values of solidarity and co-operation that are meant to underpin the NATO alliance.
But there are also concerns about friction between European countries over the thorny issue of migration, as Western nations reckon with their moral duty to those Afghans most endangered by the Taliban takeover.
Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, has already thrown down the gauntlet. This morning she launched an unprecedented attack on France, telling BBC’s Radio 4 that “there is more they can do around legal and illegal migration” after penning a comment piece for The Telegraph calling on other EU countries to help take in Afghan refugees.
If NATO is to weather the storm of the Taliban takeover – not to mention China, Russia and climate change – European member states will need to rethink their dependence on Washington’s foreign policy and reinstate the founding values of solidarity and co-operation as they plan their next move.